Morning Economic News - February 9, 2009

Commentary and Overnight Trading

US stock market futures show a market set to give back about a third of Friday's gains in the opening hours as delays in the Fed's Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending
Facility and the Obama administration's financial rescue package are reported. The Nikkei dropped 1.33% Monday, while the Hang Seng is up 0.84% [3:50 AM Eastern]. Oil is down half a percent and gold is down more than 1%, while industrial metals are up. The dollar is trading up against the euro, pound and Canadian dollar, down against the yen.

Economic Reports

Consumer Credit - December 2008

• Total outstanding consumer credit: $2562.3 billion


• Total rate of change: Down 3.1%

Employment Situation - January 2009

• Nonfarm Payroll Employment: 134,580,000


• Monthly Change: Down 598,000


• Unemployment Rate: 7.6%

What I'm Writing

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead February 9 to 13, 2009

This week will be fairly light in the number of economic indicator releases, but some of the numbers could be very revealing...the markets are in one of those weird moods where bad news is seen as
bringing relief closer. This is normally Fed focused, but with the Fed
sidelined by a lack of ammunition, it's now fiscal policy focused. And
that's where the biggest news of the week may come from, as Congress is
likely to put the finishing touches on a fiscal stimulus package early
in the week.

What I'm Reading

Real-Estate Sector Cheers Tax Credit

A proposed tax credit for home purchases is raising the
hopes of the real-estate industry, which believes it could stabilize
the housing market.

U.S. Delays Financial-Rescue Plan as Officials Grapple With Toxic Assets Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner
delayed the announcement of the Obama administration’s
financial-recovery plan as officials debated proposals aimed at
addressing the toxic debt clogging banks’ balance sheets.

Japan Machinery Orders Fall for Third Month, Corporate Bankruptcies Climb Orders for Japanese machinery fell
for a third month in December and bankruptcies increased as
businesses scrapped investment plans amid a collapse in exports
and deteriorating earnings.

India's Economy Forecast to Expand 7.1% This Year, Weakest Pace Since 2003 India’s economy may grow at the
slowest pace since 2003 this year, undermining Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh’s re-election bid in two months.

Taxpayers Risk $9.7 Trillion on Bailouts as Senate Debates Obama Stimulus The stimulus package the U.S. Congress
is completing would raise the government’s commitment to solving
the financial crisis to $9.7 trillion, enough to pay off more
than 90 percent of the nation’s home mortgages.

Taiwan's Exports Decline by a Record 44.1% as Sales to China, U.S. Tumble Taiwan’s exports fell by an
unprecedented 44.1 percent last month on reduced global demand
for the island’s computer chips, laptops and mobile phones.

Japan's Recession May Be Worst in Half Century, BOJ's Chief Economist Says Japan’s economy is deteriorating at a
pace unseen in the past half century, the central bank’s chief
economist said.

China Exports May Fall by Most in Decade as Demand Plunges in U.S., Europe China’s exports probably fell by the
most in a decade in January as demand dried up in the U.S. and
Europe, making it harder to revive growth in the world’s third-
biggest economy.