Economic News - August 29, 2008

Personal Income and Outlays - July 2008

Personal Income: Down $89.9 billion (0.7%)

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead September 2 to 5, 2008

After relatively strong housing reports and an impressive showing in
the 2nd quarter GDP report last week, Fed watchers will be on alert for
any signs that could point to rate increases – especially in
Wednesday's release of the Federal Reserve Beige Book.

The dollar is poised to make gains against other currencies as US
growth ramps up and other economies, especially Western Europe, slow.

Consumer Spending Slowed in July

Consumer spending rose 0.2% in July, but adjusted for inflation outlays dropped
0.4%, suggesting the economy will weaken with the end of government
stimulus payments.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Slowed in July as Prices Rose Most in 17 Years

U.S. consumer spending grew at a
slower pace in July as the impact of the tax rebates faded and a
pickup in inflation eroded Americans' buying power.

Business Activity Expands at the Fastest Pace in Year, Chicago Index Shows

A measure of U.S. business activity
showed expansion at the fastest pace in more than a year, as
production accelerated the most since October 2004.

European Confidence Drops More Than Forecast; Inflation Rate Falls to 3.8%

Europeans' confidence fell more
than forecast this month as the economy teetered on the brink
of a recession.

Darling Says U.K. Economic Slowdown Is Worst in 60 Years, Guardian Reports

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer
Alistair Darling said the British economy is facing the worst
slowdown in 60 years and will not recover as quickly as
originally forecast, the Guardian reported.

Consumer spending flags, but confidence rises

WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - Personal income tumbled unexpectedly in July and
inflation-adjusted spending shrank as government economic stimulus
waned, but consumer spirits rose this month, a hint the economy may
muddle through its woes.

Canada skirts recession in second quarter

OTTAWA, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Canada's economy narrowly
avoided a recession in the second quarter but the tepid 0.3
percent annual growth rate raised doubts about how long the
Bank of Canada could afford to keep interest rates on hold.

Economic News - August 28, 2008

Not quite a recession.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the 2nd quarter preliminary GDP estimate Thursday, showing a real growth rate of 3.3% annually in the second quarter. This is nearly double the already decent 1.9% growth rate reported in the advance estimate.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - 2nd Quarter 2008 Preliminary

Real Annual Growth Rate: 3.3%

Money Supply (M1 and M2) - August 28, 2008

M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $33 billion
M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): $457.1 billion

Jobless Claims - August 28, 2008

Change from Last Week: Down 10,000

Rates down, but may rise on good economic news

Freddie Mac chief economist attributed the drop in long term rates to
signs of weakness in economic indicators last week, but noted that
there were promising signs in housing markets

Dude, Where's My Recession?

Was it all about the government rebates? Nope. Here is Mike Englund
over at Action Economics: "It turns out that a hefty 4.8 percent real
growth rate was seen for real final sales in Q2, with the bulk of the
strength in the net export component that defies the explanations that
the gain was 'all due to rebates.' The rebates likely did boost nominal
consumption growth with a gain split between price gains and real
growth. Yet, Q2 was clearly poised for a solid performance anyway, led
by trade, nonresidential construction, and a bounce in government
spending there were all likely insensitive to the rebate program."

GDP Revision Signals Strength

The U.S. economy was much stronger in the spring than first thought, with GDP rising 3.3%, but the pace is expected to slow over the rest of the
year.

Europe's Growth Slowed in August

Euro-zone growth slowed in August, adding to evidence of a possible recession. The EuroCOIN indicator fell to its lowest since mid-2003.

Mortgage Rates Fell in Week

Rates on fixed-rate home mortgages fell this week, following reports of weakness in the economy. But rates on adjustable-rate mortgages rose
slightly.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Probably Slowed in July as Rebate Impact Faded

Consumer spending in the U.S. probably slowed in July as the impact of the tax rebates faded, economists said ahead of a report today.

Lockhart Says Federal Reserve's Rate Is `Consistent' With Slower Inflation

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank's interest-rate stance is ``consistent'' with slowing inflation, while signaling
readiness to raise borrowing costs if needed.

Japan factory output rises but outlook weak

Japan July housing starts +19.0 pct yr/yr--govt

TOKYO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Housing starts in Japan, hit hard
by a regulatory change last year, rose 19.0 percent in July from
a year earlier, above a median market forecast for a 14.0 percent
rise, government data showed on Friday.

U.S. economy shows vigor in Q2, but seen flagging

U.S. M-2 money supply down $10.5 bln Aug 18 week

Canada's Harper does not rule out recession

Related articles by Zemanta

• Exports Give U.S. Economy 2Q Spurt
• Dollar rises on stronger GDP, falling oil
• US GDP rebounds with 3.3% growth
• Figures ease US recession fears
• 2nd-Quarter G.D.P. Revised Higher
• Exports Help Spur 2nd Qtr Economy
• Economy gets big stimulus boost
• U.S. economy rebounds spurred by exports

Economic News - August 27, 2008

Durable Goods Orders - July 2008

Nondefense Capital Goods Change: Up 6.3%

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - August 27, 2008

Purchase Index: 315.9
Change: Up 0.6%

Oil report mostly more of the same

US petroleum inventories were a mixed bag this week with total commercial petroleum inventories up 2.3 billion barrels...
On the demand side, there were minor fluctuations, but total products supplied was down again from last year by 3.6%.

More good news for housing market

The housing market got a bit more good news this week with a small
increase in mortgage applications and a small drop in the average
30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) rate and points paid.

Drop in exports hurt Australia in June

Falling exports took their toll on the Australian economy in June, with
the leading index down 0.5% and the coincident index unchanged. With
commodity prices dropping in July, Australian exports could well take
another hit before recovering as lower prices and better economic
growth abroad help exports regain steam.

Image via Wikipedia

Worker Confidence Sinks to '01 Level

American workers' confidence in the job market is as low as it was during the 2001 recession, according to a new survey.

Inflation Data Damp ECB Rate-Cut Hopes

Slowing German inflation suggested price growth in the euro zone likely peaked
during July, but ECB officials tried to damp market expectations that
interest rates might be reduced soon.

Durable-Goods Orders Climb

Demand for expensive goods rose 1.3% in July, an unexpected gain, thanks to a
dollar-fueled export boom that analysts warn may soon fade as overseas
growth slows. A barometer of business-equipment spending climbed by
2.6%.

Philippines' Economic Growth Weakens to 4.6%; Slowest Pace in Three Years

The Philippine economy expanded at the slowest pace since 2005 as consumer spending waned, posing a
challenge to the central bank as it increases interest rates to fight the fastest inflation in 16 years.

Asean, India Finish Free Trade Agreement on Goods to Spur Trade by a Third

Southeast Asian nations completed negotiations with India for a free trade agreement on goods that
aims to increase commerce between the countries by a third over the next two years.

Australia's Mining Boom Drives Faster-Than-Forecast Business Investment

Australian business investment rose more than twice as much as economists forecast in the second quarter as mining companies spent extra on machinery and
equipment to meet demand from China.

Japan investors dumped foreign bonds last week

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed lower on Aug. 26

Canada economy seen skidding in 2nd-quarter

U.S. holiday sales seen slowest since 2001 -- ICSC

Economic News - August 26, 2008

Consumer Confidence Index - August 2008

Consumer Confidence Index: 56.9
Monthly Change: Up 5

Federal Open Market Committee Minutes - August 5, 2008

Unit labor costs apparently continued to increase at a restrained pace
during the second quarter, reflecting only moderate gains in worker
compensation and relatively strong productivity performance, with
little sign of higher overall inflation passing through to higher
worker compensation.

Case-Shiller Index - June 2008

Composite 20 Index: 167.69
Monthly Change: Down 0.85

New Home Sales - July 2008

Annual Sales Rate (Seasonally Adjusted): 515,000
Monthly Change: Up 2.4%
Annual Change: Down 35.3%

Home sales improving, snags in prices and inventories

Though the news has focused on some negatives in the housing statistics
out early this week, the overall picture is looking better than it has
for several months.

Image via Wikipedia

Fed Minutes Show Split on Inflation Risk

Fed officials downgraded their economic forecast at their last
policy-setting meeting, according to meeting minutes. Some officials
appeared divided over the degree of the inflation threat and the extent
to which financial turmoil is weighing on the economy

Europe's Gloom Is Boon to Dollar

The dollar surged against the euro in early trading, spurred by downbeat
data out of Germany, while the British pound also stumbled. As the
economic picture in Europe darkens, the U.S. dollar is proving to be
the main beneficiary.

U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence Increases as Slump in Home Prices Slows

Confidence among American consumers improved in August for a second month as the surge in gasoline
prices and the slide in home values abated.

Fed Officials Agreed Aug. 5 Next Rate Move Will Be Increase, Minutes Show

Federal Reserve officials agreed at their meeting this month that their next move in interest rates will be to raise them, while reaching no conclusion on
the timing of such a decision, records of the gathering show.

US confidence bounces; glimmer of hope in housing

Rate of monthly house price fall slows

Existing Home Sales - July 2008

Total Existing Home Sales Annual Rate: 5.00 million
Monthly Change: Up 3.1%

Mexican economic indicators pointing up

The Mexican economy performed very well in June with the Coincident Index up 0.7%. The Leading Index, which forecasts future economic performance, also rose 0.4%.

Image via Wikipedia

Home Sales Rise but Risks Persist

Existing-home sales rose a healthy 3.1% in July from the previous
month, but growing inventories of unsold homes and rising mortgage
interest rates continue to thwart a full housing-market recovery.

Slowdown in China Hits Taiwan

Taiwan's export orders grew at their slowest pace in more than five years in
July, with demand from China weakening along with U.S. demand.

U.K. Mortgage Approvals Declined 65% in July, Close to Lowest in a Decade

U.K. mortgage approvals held close to the lowest in a decade in July as property values slumped, a report by the British Bankers' Association showed.

German Consumer Confidence Drops to Five-Year Low as Oil Erodes Spending

German consumer confidence dropped to the lowest in more than five years as soaring energy prices sapped purchasing power and the economic outlook deteriorated.

Weak Ifo drives stocks lower; buoys dollar

Dollar hits 2008 peak, high-yielding currencies sold off

World stocks hits lowest in almost 2 yrs

LONDON, Aug 26 (Reuters) - World stocks fell to their lowest
in almost two years on Tuesday as fresh concerns about the
financial sector and growth outlook prompted investors to dump
risky assets.

Economic News Weekend - August 24, 2008

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead August 25 to 29, 2008

This week's headline economic indicators will be all about consumers –
home sales Monday and Tuesday, consumer confidence Tuesday and Friday,
and personal income and spending Friday.

Home Resales in U.S. Probably Rose from 10-Year Low, Spurred by Price Drop

Sales of existing houses in the U.S. probably rose in July from a 10-year low as declining prices helped stabilize demand, economists said before a report today.

Image via Wikipedia

Thai Economic Growth Slows for First Time in a Year on Weak Local Demand

Thailand's economic growth slowed more than expected in the second quarter, increasing the likelihood the central bank will soon stop raising interest rates.

Libor Signals Credit Seizing Up as Banks Balk at Lending in Money Markets

Most of the bond strategists and salesmen that Resolution Investment Management Ltd.'s Stuart Thomson talked to last August expected the credit crunch to be
long over by now. Instead, money markets show there's no end in sight, and it may even worsen.

Economic News - August 21, 2008

Jobless Claims - August 21, 2008

Initial Claims: 432,000
Change from Last Week: Down 13,000

Money Supply (M1 and M2) - August 21, 2008

M1 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $1401.0 billion
M2 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $7726.2 billion

Leading Index (US) - July 2008

Leading Index: Down 0.7%
Coincident Index: Up 0.1%
Lagging Index: Up 0.4%

Freddie Mac reports drop in mortgage rates

Freddie Mac reported rates down again this week for all terms except
the 1-year Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM). The 5-year Treasury-indexed
hybrid ARM dropped slightly as did the 15-year Fixed Rate Mortgage
(FRM) and the 30-year FRM. All rates are lower than this time last year
and the Freddie Mac conforming ARM is still under 5.5% at 5.29 with 0.5
point.

Image via Wikipedia

Inflation Is Stinging U.S. Workers Harder

Inflation is rising faster than the wages of U.S. workers compared with that of
Europeans. However, economists say the euro zone faces a "major risk"
of a wage-price inflationary spiral if businesses increase prices to
cover labor costs.

Central Bankers at Jackson Hole May See Few Ways to Fix Market, Economies

The world's top central bankers gather at their annual U.S. mountainside symposium today with a sense there's not much more they can do to repair credit markets
and rescue the global economy.

Taiwan's Economic Growth Probably Slowed on Weaker Spending, U.S. Exports

Taiwan's economy probably grew at the slowest pace in more than a year last quarter as consumer spending cooled and U.S. customers bought fewer laptops, flat-
screen televisions and mobile phones.

Nobel Laureates Scholes, Stiglitz Predict Slowdown; Goldman Sees Recession

Nobel Prize-winning economists including Myron Scholes and Joseph Stiglitz predicted the credit squeeze will inflict more pain on global growth and Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. projected half of the world economy faces recession.

Economic growth to slow further into 2009-MAPI

Lower energy costs eases pressure on factories

Related articles by Zemanta

• Mortgage rate fall to 6.47%
• Nobel prize winners warn financial system is still not out of the woods
• Burdened by Mortgages, Lehman's Options Narrow

Economic News - August 20, 2008

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - August 20, 2008

Purchase Index: 314.0
Change: Down 0.4%

Mortgage applications fall, FHA mortgage share triples

The Mortgage Bankers Association also reported on Monday that the share
of government insured mortgages (mostly FHA loans) tripled over the
last year, from just over 8% to nearly 30% of all mortgages.

US Gasoline inventories drop below average

US gasoline inventories fell sharply last week, while crude oil
inventories rose by nearly 10 million barrels. Total commercial
petroleum inventories rose on increases in crude and all non-gasoline
refined products. Refineries actually increased gasoline production, so
the fall in inventories seems due to an increase in use.

Image via Wikipedia

Developed Economies' Growth Slow

Developed economies grew at the slowest rate in almost seven years during the second quarter, OECD figures showed.

After Decades, Iran Buys U.S. Wheat

Iran's resumption of U.S. wheat purchases signals its limited options for
large quantities of high-quality grain. The purchase this summer ends a
27-year hiatus, but doesn't indicate whether the trade represents
larger, geopolitical developments.

Japan Exports Rebound as China Overtakes U.S. as Nation's Biggest Customer

Japan's exports rebounded in July as China replaced the U.S. as the nation's largest customer.

Fed Can Be `Patient' on Rates as Oil Drop May Slow Inflation, Stern Says Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

President Gary Stern said an oil-price decline will probably push headline inflation lower, allowing the central bank to ``be patient'' in considering a change to the main interest rate.

Bank of England Panel Split Three Ways in Vote to Keep Interest Rate at 5%

Bank of England policy makers split three ways in August, with one arguing for higher rates to tame inflation and another voting for a cut to stave off a recession.

Foreign investors buy Japan shares, snaps sell streak

TOKYO, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Foreign investors bought a net 43.8
billion yen ($398 million) of Japanese stocks last week, breaking
a seven-week streak of selling, capital flows data released by
Japan's Ministry of Finance showed on Thursday

UPDATE 1-Colombia industrial output slides 6.55 pct in June

BOGOTA, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Colombia's industrial production
fell 6.55 percent in June compared with a year earlier in the
clearest sign yet of the country's slowing economic growth, the
government said on Wednesday. 

State Street Investor Confidence Index - August 2008

Global Index: 77.2
Monthly Change: Down 6.8
Year-to-year Change: Down 22.4

Producer Price Index - July 2008

Finished Goods Index: Up 1.2%
Finished Goods Core: Up 0.7%
Finished Goods Annual Change: Up 9.8%

Housing Starts - July 2008

Housing Starts: 965,000
Monthly Change: Down 11%
Year-to-year Change: Down 29.6%
1-Family Monthly Change: Down 2.9%

Housing starts drop, builder confidence stable

Builder confidence was stable in August after new housing starts fell
substantially in July. The National Association of Homebuilder’s
Housing Market Index stabilized at a reading of 16, a multi-year low,
with sales expectations improving. The Commerce Department reported an
11% drop in housing starts in July (following the large June increase);
again the fluctuation was mostly in multifamily starts as single family
housing starts fell, but only 2.9%.

German Leading Index Plummets

The euro is starting to show the pressure, but these numbers are
actually quite a bit worse than the corresponding US stats 6 months to
a year ago, indicating that the euro may have a bit further to fall.

Image via Wikipedia

Housing's Chill Hits Apartments

The specter of job losses is beginning to
take a toll on apartment buildings as would-be renters are doubling up
in apartments or moving in with friends and families.

Producer Prices Rose 1.2% in July

Producer prices surged last month to their highest annual rate in 27 years,
showing inflation is still running high even as the U.S. economy slows.
Most Fed officials are betting inflation will moderate in coming
months, but some policy makers remain uneasy about price increases
spreading through the economy.

Bank of Japan Says Economic Growth Is Sluggish for First Time Since 1998

The Bank of Japan cut its economic
assessment, saying growth in the world's second-largest economy
is ``sluggish'' for the first time in 10 years.

Fannie, Freddie Bailout May Hinge on Cost to Rollover $223 Billion of Debt

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's success
in repaying $223 billion of bonds due by the end of the quarter
may determine whether they can avoid a federal bailout.

Wall Street Turbulence [Video]

Aug 19 - Weak economic reports and worries about Lehman Brothers sink stocks

Related articles by Zemanta

• Stagflation? Or just stagnation?
• U.S. inflation pressures mount; home building slows
• Warning: Major Bank 'To Go Bust'
• Stocks Fall in Asia and Europe on Financial Worries

Economic News - August 18, 2008

Here is the latest economic news from Monday August 18, 2008 and overnight into Tuesday morning:

Housing Market Index - August 2008

Current Month Index: 16
Monthly Change: Unchanged

France still barely holding on, Leading index down again

The French index of leading economic indicators from the Conference
Board declined again in June, 0.2% this time, while the coincident
index, which measures current economic activity was unchanged. In May,
the coincident index was up 0.1% and the leading index fell 0.2%.

France Readies Plan to Halt Recession

France aims to present a plan on how to prevent the euro zone from falling into recession at next month's meeting of EU finance ministers.

Image via Wikipedia

Growth in Labor Costs Accelerates

The growth in labor costs picked up in the first quarter, the OECD said, a trend likely to concern central banks.

Australia's Central Bank Says It May Cut Rates `Soon' to Shore Up Growth

Australia's central bank said it may soon cut interest rates for the first time in seven years to avoid a ``deeper and more persistent'' economic slowdown.

German Investor Sentiment May Have Held Near Record Low as Recession Looms

German investor confidence probably held near a record low in August after Europe's largest economy contracted in the second quarter, increasing the risk of a
recession, a survey of economists shows.

Mexico industrial output loses steam in June

S. California July home sales rise 14 percent

Foreclosures fuel S. California July home sales

Economic news - August 15, 2008

Treasury International Capital - June 2008

Foreign purchases of Long Term US Securities: $62.7 billion
Official purchases: $14.9 billion
Private purchases: $47.8 billion

Empire State Manufacturing Survey - August 2008

Business Conditions Index: 2.8
Monthly Change: Up 7.7

Industrial Production - July 2008

Industrial Production Index: 111.8
Monthly Change: Up 0.2%
Long Run Average Capacity Utilization: 81%

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead August 18 to 22, 2008

With the CPI (Consumer Price Index) figures released Thursday
showing fairly strong inflation at the retail level, the PPI figure may
be the most important stat of the week.

For stock and bond market investors, the State Street Index is
important, but the larger macro indicators are more likely to move the
market on the day.

Image via Wikipedia

Dollar's Rise Could Damp Inflation

The dollar marched higher again, continuing a development that could ease
inflationary pressures but also could slow an export boom. The rally is
a sign of weakness in other economies and closely tied to declines in
commodity prices.

Industrial Output Growth Slows

U.S. industrial production slowed in July to 0.2% growth, pulled back by a
drop in output at utilities as the weather turned fairer.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases on Fuel; New York Manufacturing Expands

Confidence among American consumers gained in August and manufacturing in New York grew the most
since January as a slide in gasoline, oil, metals and grain prices eased cost pressures on households and companies.

Mexico Raises Key Rate for Third Month, Signals Easing of Price Pressures

Mexico's central bank increased its benchmark interest rate for the third straight month while
signaling that easing commodity prices and slower economic growth may reduce the need for further tightening.

1-Peru's economy grows 11.52 pct in June

Peru's economy, one of the fastest
growing in the world, expanded 11.52 percent in June from the
same month a year ago, official data showed on Friday, pushed
by booming domestic demand and construction sector strength.

Related articles by Zemanta

• 
  
  U.S. inflation rises at fastest pace in 17 years
• 
  
  Bonds rise as investors discount inflation

Economic News - August 14, 2008

Jobless Claims - August 14, 2008

• Initial Claims: 450,000


• Change from Last Week: Down 10,000


• 4-Week Moving Average: 440,500

Money Supply - August 14, 2008

M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): $32.5 billion
M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): $450.4 billion

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - July 2008

CPI-U: 219.964
Monthly Change: Up 0.5%
Year-to-year Change: Up 5.6%
Core CPI-U: Up 0.3% [Seasonally adjusted]

Freddie Mac reports rates little changed

Freddie Mac reported average interest rates on its conforming loans
little changed in the latest Primary Market Mortgage Survey. The 1-Year
conforming Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) is still almost 2% below the
rate reported yesterday for the Mortgage Banker’s Associations average
ARM.

Image via Wikipedia

Fannie, Freddie Divide Economists

Chances are better than even that government money will be used to
prop up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, economists in the latest Wall
Street Journal survey said, and a sizeable minority said the
institutions should be nationalized.

Global Economic Picture Darkens

The world economy is slowing sharply after months of resilience in the
face of U.S. economic weakness, with Japan, the U.K. and the euro zone
all flirting with recession. It's unclear how emerging economies will
cope with a downturn in the developed world.

Bank of Japan May Keep Key Rate at 0.5% After Economy Shrank, Prices Rose

The Bank of Japan will probably keep
interest rates at the lowest level in the industrialized world
next week after the economy shrank and inflation accelerated to
a decade high.

Consumers Spend More on Gasoline Than U.S. Cars for First Time in 26 Years

Consumers spent more on gasoline than
vehicles and parts for the first time in 26 years in May and
June, as U.S. pump prices headed for a record.

New Zealand's Quarterly Spending Drops Most in 13 Years as Economy Falters

New Zealand's retail sales fell by
the most in at least 13 years in the second quarter, when
adjusted for inflation, as spiraling food and fuel prices left
consumers with less to spend on dining out and clothes.

Negative BOJ tankan seen after Reuters survey

U.S. dollar continues rebound [Video]

The U.S. dollar jumped to a nearly 6-month high, after reports of
contraction in European economies. Stocks also rallied on falling oil
prices.

Economic News - August 13, 2008

Big drop in oil inventories

Just how bearish oil markets have become is reflected in a scant $3.70 (3.25%) rise in the 17 hours since the initial release of the report, even with hostilities in Georgia which threaten a major pipeline flaring up again Wednesday.

Retail Sales - July 2008

Total Retail and Food Service Sales: $384.6 billion
Monthly Change: Down 0.1%
Annual Change: Up 2.6%

Import Export Price

Indexes - July 2008
Import Prices: Up 1.7%
Export Prices: Up 1.4%
Yearly Import Price Change: Up 21.6%
Yearly Export Price Change: Up 10.2%

Purchase mortgage applications hold steady

New applications for home purchase mortgages were unchanged last week according to the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refinance applications dropped 4.2% as Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) rates rose and Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) rates were essentially unchanged

Image via Wikipedia

German Economy Contracts for the First Time in Four Years; GDP Drops 0.5%

The German economy, Europe's largest, contracted for the first time in almost four years in the second quarter, led by a slump in construction.

German Q2 GDP contracts by less than expected

BERLIN, Aug 14 (Reuters) - The German economy contracted by a smaller-than-expected 0.5 percent in the second quarter of 2008, official data showed on Thursday.

German Inflation Quickened to 3.5% in July, More Than Initially Estimated

Inflation in Germany, Europe's largest economy, accelerated more than initially estimated in July, led by surging energy and food costs.

French Economy Contracts for First Time in Five Years; Investments Fall

The French economy, the euro- region's second largest, contracted for the first time in five years in the second quarter as exports declined and companies cut investments.

Fed's Stern Sees Weak Economy Into Next Year

The Minneapolis Fed bank's Stern says headwinds from the housing and financial markets are likely to keep U.S. economic activity weak into next year.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares, commodities rebound;sterling reels

LONDON, Aug 14 (Reuters) - World stocks rose on Thursday from the previous session's one-month low while sterling tumbled to a fresh 22-month trough against the broadly firm dollar a day after the Bank of England warned on recession risks. Oil rebounded towards $117 a barrel after crude and gasoline stocks data raised supply concerns, lifting other commodities from gold to wheat and boosting resource-related shares even as the U.S. currency held near this week's six-month high

Economic News for August 12, 2008

Monthly Treasury Statement - July 2008

# Monthly Deficit/Surplus: $102,767 billion deficit
# Prior Year Monthly: $36,447 billion deficit

Spain adds to Europe’s recession chances

The leading index for Spain fell 0.4% in June according to the Conference Board, indicating tough economic times ahead. The coincident index fell by a smaller 0.1%, but the February to May numbers were all revised downward as well.

Foreign Trade (US) - June 2008

# Exports: $164.4 billion
# Monthly Change: Up $6.4 billion

Dude, Where's My Recession? The Series

Thanks to today's trade numbers, it now looks as if the economy grew much faster than 1.9 percent in the second quarter. In their preliminary GDP estimate, government bean counters thought the trade deficit would increase. Instead, it narrowed as exports surged 4.0 percent vs. a 1.8 percent rise in imports. As result, the economy probably grew at least 2.9 percent in the second quarter, if not a bit more.

Trade Gap Narrows on Export Gain

The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to $56.8 billion in June as exports registered their biggest gain in nearly four and a half years.

Image via Wikipedia

U.S. Deficit Hit $102.77 Billion in July

The U.S. budget deficit nearly tripled in July from a year earlier, pushed in part by aftershocks from failed financial institutions.

Japan economy shrinks on weaker exports, price jump

Japan Q2 GDP contraction adds to recession fears

JP Morgan's $1.5 billion hit [Video]

Aug 12 - JP Morgan warns of a big writedown and says trading conditions have gotten worse.

Japan's Economy Shrank 2.4% in Second Quarter as Exports, Spending Dropped

Japan's economy contracted last quarter, bringing the country to the brink of its first recession in six years, as exports fell and consumers spent less.

Trichet May Look Beyond Contraction, Focus on Threat of Wage-Price Spiral

European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet may look beyond a likely contraction in the euro region's economy and keep interest rates at a seven-year high to avert a wage-price spiral.

August 11 Economic News

No major US economic indicators were released Monday the 11th. Here are major economic news stories from Monday and overnight into Tuesday morning.

Capital Commerce: When the Housing and Credit Crisis Will End

Our model suggests new home inventories will have to fall below 7 months supply (from 10 months currently) before home prices begin to rise again. Unfortunately, this could take longer than anticipated given the current state of credit markets.... We believe improvement in corporate bond and mortgage markets is a crucial prerequisite to breaking the negative feedback loop between housing, the financial system, and the broad economy.

Drill, Drill, Drill Is on a Roll, Roll, Roll

Let me return to my theme that the plunge in oil prices is solving the economy’s problems. In today’s stock market trading, while overall prices are up 100 points, retailers and banks are the leading sectors...
As oil and gas pump prices descend, homeowners will have more extra cash to pay their mortgages on time. This means the mortgage bonds owned by banks are worth more. Hence the oil drop solves the credit crunch as well as the housing decline.

Image via Wikipedia

China's consumer inflation drops to 10-month low

BEIJING, Aug 12 (Reuters) - China's consumer price inflation fell in July to a 10-month low of 6.3 percent, providing welcome relief to policy makers looking to switch tack from battling price pressures to aiding a slowing economy.

Japan wholesale inflation hits 27-year high


French July Inflation Holds at 12-Year-High on Rising Energy, Food Costs

Inflation in France held at the fastest pace in at least 12 years in July, led by rising food and oil costs.

One-Third of U.S. Homeowners Owe More Than Houses Are Worth, Zillow Says

Almost one-third of U.S. homeowners who bought in the last five years now owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, according to Zillow.com, an Internet provider of home valuations.

U.S. Retools Economy, Curbing Thirst for Oil

The U.S. economy is starting to figure out how to curb its appetite for energy. Consumers are buying fewer SUVs and more energy-saving washing machines; with shipping costs surging, companies are rethinking overseas production. And evidence is emerging that the changing behavior of consumers and businesses may be making a dent in the oil market.

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead August 11 to 15, 2008

This week's economic indicators could impact heavily on Forex markets and, since some of the drop in oil prices has been a result of the stronger dollar, oil prices and financial markets generally...
With initial jobless claims hitting a 6-year high in last week's report, partially due to an extension of unemployment benefits, that number will be worth close attention this week. If it doesn't drop, it could mean there's more to last week's number than just the unemployment extension....

Merk Economic Calendar: Week Ahead In US Financial Markets (August 11-August 15 2008)

Outside of the US macro data, corporate earnings reports on Thursday for Wal-Mart, Nordstrom's and Berkshire-Hathaway all will be closely observed by the market. For the week earnings at Flour on Monday, Indy-Mac on Tuesday and Macy's on Wednesday will also impact the week in trading.

Image via Wikipedia

Wall Street Geek: Has the Housing Market Bottomed?

Investment gurus like Larry Kudlow, Jim Cramer and our own real estate guru, Michael Douville, have been pounding the table lately in predicting that the housing market has bottomed. With a slew of data released over the last couple weeks, including pending home sales, new and existing home sales, Q2 foreclosures and the S&P Case Shiller Price Index, and with the passage of the housing stimulus law, we may have enough information now to explore the possibility... so let's do so.

Economic News - August 8, 2008

Wholesale Trade - June 2008

# Wholesale Sales: $411.2 billion
# Monthly Change: Up 2.8%

Productivity and Costs - 2nd Quarter 2008

* Business Sector Productivity: 2.3%
* Manufacturing Productivity: -1.4%
* Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Productivity: Up 0.7%

U.S. productivity grew solidly in 2nd quarter

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business productivity rose solidly in the second quarter as companies cut jobs to cope with rising costs, helping curb inflation pressures while also keeping a tight grip on stocks of unsold goods.

Productivity Rise Eases Fed Pressure
U.S. productivity rose 2.2% in the second quarter despite a sluggish economy and weak manufacturing, making it easier for Fed officials to balance risks to both economic growth and inflation while holding interest rates low.

Worker Productivity in U.S. Rises 2.2% Amid Job Cuts; Labor Costs Moderate

Worker productivity in the U.S. grew in the second quarter as employers trimmed payrolls to weather the economic slump.

The 2009 Economy

The weakness in growth will push the unemployment rate up to 6¼% by the first quarter of 2009...Despite the weakness over the second half, we continue to believe that a sustained recovery will emerge next year. In particular, we expect growth to rebound to a 3% pace in the second half of 2009 and to above 3% in 2010...
The flaw in this analysis is that it completely ignores possible huge tax hikes and huge budget deficits. Both would be bad for growth.

Image via Wikipedia

The Oil Tax Cut is Good for Growth, Lower Inflation, and Solving the Credit Crunch

The very key point here -- which is being missed by so many -- is that lower oil will solve the credit crunch. Just as the price shock of the last few quarters deepened the credit crunch and brought the economy to the edge of recession, today’s oil-price plunge will ease the credit crunch and strengthen economic growth. Not only that, but plunging gold prices and the strengthening of King Dollar show the counter-inflationary impact of lower oil.

US business loans rose $5.7 bln in latest week-Fed

WASHINGTON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Commercial and industrial loans on the books at U.S. commercial banks rose in the latest week, the Federal Reserve said on Friday. WEEK ENDED July 30

Canada Unexpectedly Lost 55,200 Jobs in July; Unemployment Dropped to 6.1%

Canadian employers unexpectedly shed the most jobs in 17 years in July as manufacturers responded to slow demand for their goods by trimming payrolls.

Economic News - August 7, 2008

Pending Home Sales - June 2008

# Pending Home Sales Index: 89.0
# Monthly Change: Up 5.3%
# Yearly Change: Down 12.3%

Money Supply (M1 and M2) - August 7, 2008

M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $19.8 billion
M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): $438.2 billion

Jobless Claims - August 7, 2008

# Initial Claims: 455,00
# Change from Last Week: Up 7,000

Consumer Credit - June 2008

Total rate of change: 6.7%

Another month of bad news for British economy

European, British rates unchanged

Korean economic indicators dropped like a brick in June

Image via Wikipedia

Japan Economy Probably Shrank as Exports Fell, Bringing a Recession Closer

Japan's economy probably contracted last quarter, bringing the country to the brink of its first recession in six years, as exports fell and consumers spent less.

Japan's Bank-Lending Growth Stalls in July for First Time in Seven Months

Lending growth at Japanese banks stalled in July after accelerating for six months, as the nation's economy moved closer to a recession, making small companies more cautious about borrowing.

China's Trade Surplus May Narrow, Prompting Policies to Stimulate Economy

China's trade surplus probably fell for a fourth straight month, increasing the likelihood of more government measures to sustain the economy's expansion rather than stamp out inflation.

Rising Grain Costs Hit Consumers

Companies throughout the food chain are changing the way they do business in response to soaring grain costs, and consumers are likely to bear the brunt in the form of rising food prices.

Mexico inflation keeps rising, rate hike expected

Jobless claims up, special factors cited again

Economic News - August 6, 2008

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - August 6, 2008

# Purchase Index: 315.2
# Change: Up 1.8%

Lower gas prices helping housing market?

The interest rate changes were fairly small compared to increase in applications, possibly indicating that some of the increase came from increased confidence on the part of potential home buyers as gas prices started to drop last week.

Freddie predicts more housing pain Aug 6 [Video]

Aug 6 - The housing turmoil is only half over but mortgage related losses are just beginning, home financing giant Freddie Mac told investors after posting another quarterly loss.

Gasoline inventories down sharply, markets focused on demand drop

Turkey Shuts Section of BP's Azeri Oil Pipeline After Blast Sparks a Fire


German New Orders Fall

Germany's manufacturing sector continued to show weakness as new export orders fell 5.1% in June.

Mild fall in Japan machinery orders; outlook weak

Japan Machine Orders Fall Less Than Expected, a Sign Recession May Be Mild

Orders for Japanese machinery fell less than economists estimated in June, a sign that any recession in the world's second-largest economy may be mild.

Image via Wikipedia

IMF Cuts U.K. Economic Outlook

The IMF cut its forecast for U.K. economic growth this year to 1.4%, down from last month's 1.8% estimate.

UBS Cuts 2009 Global Economy Forecast, Says Recession `Precariously Close'

UBS AG cut its growth forecast for the global economy for 2009, and said the world is ``precariously close'' to a recession as the U.S. slows.

Economic Indicators - August 5, 2008

Nonmanufacturing Report on Business - July 2008

# NMI/PMI: 49.5
# Reading above 50 represents growing activity
# Change: Up 1.3

Federal Funds Rate - August 5, 2008

Federal Funds Rate: 2.00%
Discount Rate: 2.25%

Japanese economic indicators nosedive

Consumer confidence down, near record low: ABC

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American consumers' confidence fell in the latest week to within 2 points of its record low and is on pace for its second-worst year in 22 years of measurements, a survey showed on Tuesday.

Image via Wikipedia

Fed Keeps Benchmark Interest Rate at 2%, Signals No Increase Anytime Soon

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent and signaled that weak employment and financial instability will delay any increase in borrowing costs.

U.S. Service Industries Contract a Second Month in Sign Slowdown Spreading Service industries in the U.S. shrank in July for a second straight month as a decline in new orders overshadowed an improvement in employment.

Global economy shrinks for second month: JP Morgan

Treasury Hires Morgan Stanley

The Treasury Department hired Morgan Stanley to provide "market analysis and financial expertise" in connection with its rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

No Change Seen for European Rates

The ECB and Bank of England are almost certain to leave interest rates on hold when they conclude their policy meetings, amid further signs that the euro-zone and British economies are slowing.

Employment Trends Index - July 2008

Factory Orders - June 2008

Personal Income and Outlays - June 2008

Australian Central Bank Signals Interest Rates May Be Cut; Currency Falls

Australia's central bank signaled it may cut borrowing costs for the first time in almost seven years as slowing economic growth cools inflation.

Bernanke May Sound Tougher on Prices to Avert Fed Bank Presidents' Revolt

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, likely to leave interest rates unchanged today, may need to sound tougher on inflation to avert the sharpest public disagreement among policy makers in more than a decade.

Image via Wikipedia

U.S. Service Industries Probably Shrank for Second Month as Growth Cooled

Service industries in the U.S. probably shrank in July for a second straight month, signaling the slowdown in growth broadened, economists said before a report this week.

Consumer Spending Rose in June

Consumer spending jumped in June, boosted by the tax rebates provided by the economic stimulus package. Personal income edged higher. The PCE price index climbed 4.1% from a year earlier. Separately, factory orders climbed more than expected.

Related articles by Zemanta

• US consumer inflation rise hits spending