Morning Economic News - November 28, 2008

Asian stocks rose Friday and US stock market futures are up a bit under half a percent. Oil futures are down just under 1% and the dollar is up against the Canadian dollar and the yen, down against the pound and euro. [3 AM Eastern]

Durable Goods Orders - October 2008

• >Nondefense Capital Goods Change: Down 3.6%


• New Orders: $193.0 billion


• New Orders Change: Down 6.2%

Jobless Claims - November 26, 2008

• Initial Claims: 529,000


• Change from Last Week: Down 14,000


• 4-Week Moving Average: 518,000

Personal Income and Outlays - October 2008

• Personal Income: $12,214.7 billion


• Monthly Change: Up 0.3%


• Real Disposable Personal Income: Up 1%

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - November 26, 2008

• Market Composite Index: 404.4


• Change: Up 1.5%


• Purchase Index: 261.6


• Change: Up 5.3%

More downward pressure on oil prices from inventory gains

For those heating with propane a bad winter cold snap could mean much
higher prices as inventories are below average for the season. With
refinery activity up, gasoline production up and jet fuel demand still
more than 17% below year ago levels, propane is the only major
petroleum category with real short term potential for a sustained price
spike. Distillate fuel demand is below last year levels, but this
category bears watching as the inventory levels approach the lower end
of the average range and demand is down the least of the reported
products.

Euro-Zone Confidence Plunges

Business and consumer confidence in the euro zone collapsed
in November, bolstering predictions the ECB may cut its key interest
rate more than expected.

New-Home Sales Decline 5.3%

New-home sales tumbled 5.3% to the lowest level in 17 years during October, while prices kept retreating.

Japan's Recession Deepens as Factory Output Slumps, Consumers Cut Spending Japan’s recession deepened last
month as companies cut production, consumers spent less and
fewer people looked for work.

India's Economy to Weather Mumbai Terror Attacks, Avoid `Doom and Gloom' India’s economy will probably
withstand the effect of yesterday’s terror attacks in Mumbai as
rising incomes and record harvests boost consumer spending.

Japan's Inflation Rate Slows for Second Month to 1.9% as Oil Prices Tumble Japan’s inflation slowed for a
second month in October as oil and commodity prices tumbled,
providing relief to cash-strapped households in a recession.

South Korea's Industrial Production Falls for the First Time in 13 Months South Korea's industrial production
fell for the first time in 13 months in October, adding to
concern the economy is headed for its first recession in a decade.

Japanese Companies Plan to Fire 30,000 Temp Staff by March, Ministry Says Japanese companies plan to fire more
than 30,000 temporary and part-time workers before the end of the
business year as the recession deepens.

Australian Consumer-Lending Growth Slows as Rate Cuts Fail to Spur Demand Lending to Australian consumers and
businesses grew at a slower pace in October, even as the central
bank embarked on the biggest round of interest-rate cuts since a
recession in 1991.

U.K. Consumer Confidence Stays Close to 30-Year Low as Recession Deepens U.K. consumer confidence stayed
close to the lowest level in more than three decades in November
as gloom about the recession deterred spending, GfK NOP said.

Almunia Says EU to Cut 2009 Outlook to `Negative Growth' as Crisis Endures The European Union will cut its
economic forecasts to project a contraction next year as the
region continues to reel from the impact of the global financial
crisis, EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said.

S.Korea output buckles, analysts scent recession 

SEOUL, Nov 28 (Reuters) - South Korea's industrial output
fell the most in two years in October, data showed on Friday,
suggesting the economy is slipping closer to its first
recession since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.

Japan output slump heralds deep downturn, India slows

* Asian markets gain 6th day cheered by China action
(Repeats to additional subscribers with no change to text)
(For more stories on the global crisis, click

Morning Economic News - November 26, 2008

Overnight trading is relatively calm and pointing to bit less rocky day for US stocks Wednesday. US stock market futures are down just under 1% and the Nikkei is down 1.33%. Oil is up just under 1% after closing at a low just above $50/barrel, as Russia has announced it may coordinate production cuts with OPEC to shore up prices. The US oil report due out Wednesdsay would need to show a big inventory drop or a big spike in demand, neither likely, to put real strength under what's perceived as a mostly empty threat by cash strapped Russia. The US dollar is up more than half a percent against the Canadian dollar, unusual with a runup in oil prices, down against the yen and up against the euro and the pound.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - 3rd Quarter 2008 Preliminary

• Real Annual Growth Rate: -0.5%


• Previous Quarter Rate: 2.8%

Consumer Confidence Index - November 2008

• Consumer Confidence Index: 44.9


• Monthly Change: Up 6.1


• Expectations Index: 46.7


• Monthly Change: Up 11

Fed Aid Sets Off a Rush to Refinance

The Federal Reserve's attempt to stabilize the housing
market set off a chain reaction that dropped rates and spurred a burst
of refinancing activity by borrowers eager to lower mortgage costs.

Home Prices Continue to Drop

The S&P/Case-Shiller national index and a separate FHFA
measure both showed declines in home prices in the third quarter.
Separately, builder D.R. Horton's fourth-quarter loss widened.

US consumer confidence holds at record low-ABC survey

US economy shrinks at fastest pace in seven years

Mexico's Oct trade gap biggest since at least 1991

Fed Risks `Spitting in the Wind' With $800 Billion Pledge to Thaw Lending The Federal Reserve’s new $800
billion effort to combat the financial crisis is designed to
make credit more accessible to shaken consumers who aren’t sure
they want more debt.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises From Record Low as Gasoline Prices Decline U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly
rose in November from a record low as falling gasoline prices
helped alleviate concerns about rising unemployment and tumbling
financial markets.

U.S. Economy Shrinks 0.5%, Most Since 2001, as Consumer Spending Plunges The U.S. economy shrank in the third
quarter faster than previously estimated as consumer spending
plunged by the most in almost three decades.

Russia's Ikea Shoppers Threatened as Nascent Middle Class Faces Job Losses While Russia’s oligarchs have lost
hundreds of billions of dollars in the global financial crisis, a
less-noticed threat to the nation’s economy comes from 24-year-
old Georgy Mironov.

South Korea Economy Will Shrink 2% in 2009 as Exports Fall, Macquarie Says South Korea’s economy will contract
2 percent next year as exports slump amid a global economic
slowdown, Macquarie Securities Ltd. forecasts.

Singapore's Industrial Production Declines as Global Recession Cuts Demand Singapore’s industrial production
declined for the third time in four months in October as
electronics manufacturing contracted amid falling global demand.

Australia to Avoid Recession on Rate Cuts, Government Spending, OECD Says Australia’s economy will avoid a
recession next year, helped by lower interest rates, government
spending and exports, the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development said.

Japanese Capital Spending Will Avoid `Collapse,' Economist Nabeyama Says Japanese companies will keep
spending during the recession to remain competitive, according
to the chief economist at the Development Bank of Japan.

Morning Economic News - November 25, 2008

Asian stock markets were up Tuesday, but US stock market futures are down (less than 1%) and European markets opened weak. The dollar is up against the Canadian dollar, euro, pound and most major currencies except the yen and the Korean won. Oil is down more than 2.5% from the Monday New York close. [4:15 AM Eastern]

Existing Home Sales - October 2008

• Total Existing Home Sales Annual Rate: 4.98 million


• Monthly Change: Down 3.1%


• Year-to-year Change: Down 1.6%

Australian Leading Index suffers first drop in 7 months

Australia’s Leading Index gave back three-fourths of its August gain
with a 0.3% drop in September, while the Coincident Index was
unchanged. This was the first decline in the Leading Index for
Australia in 7 months and with 3 of the 7 leading indicators improving
Australia has some decent underlying strength in its economic picture.

Mexican Leading Index falls hard - again

Mexico’s leading indicators fell 1.9% in September after falling 0.9% in August,
while the Coincident Index was unchanged after a 0.2% drop in August.
All 6 leading indicators and 2 of the 3 coincident indicators dropped
in September.

New Facility Targets Consumer Lending

Paulson plans to announce a program to increase the availability of auto loans, student loans and credit cards.

Russia Allows Ruble to Weaken

Russia allowed the ruble to shed 1% of its value,
bolstering expectations it will conduct a staged weakening rather than
a one-off devaluation.

Obama Says U.S. Could Lose `Millions' of Jobs in 2009 Without Bold Action President-elect Barack Obama warned
that the U.S. is “trapped in a vicious cycle” and faces the
loss of “millions of jobs” unless immediate steps are taken to
stimulate the economy and to rescue the nation’s automakers.

Citigroup Bailout Charts New U.S. Course for Rescues, Adding Taxpayer Risk The U.S. government’s emergency
rescue of Citigroup Inc. offers a new model for bank bailouts:
explicitly insuring against losses on toxic assets, with
taxpayers footing the bill.

Paulson, Bernanke Said to Unveil New Plan to Shore Up Consumer Financing The U.S. Treasury and Federal
Reserve will unveil as soon as today a lending program to shore
up the consumer-finance market, using money from the
government’s $700 billion rescue, two people familiar with the
effort said.

Consumer Confidence in Germany Unexpectedly Rises on Declining Oil Price German consumer confidence
unexpectedly rose for a third month, defying the recession.

French Business Confidence Drops to 15-Year Low as Europe Enters Recession French business confidence fell to the
lowest in more than 15 years in November as the euro-region
economy slipped into a recession.

China Should Shift Focus From Exports to Domestic Demand, World Bank Says China should do more to rebalance
its economy from investment, exports and industry to
consumption and services as it rolls out a $586 billion
stimulus package, the World Bank said.

Geithner Struggled to Rally Action After Spotting Dangers of Default Swaps Timothy Geithner was among the first
policy makers to shine a light on the unregulated $47 trillion
credit-default swap market back in 2005. The New York Federal
Reserve president has struggled since then to get dealers to
carry out reforms.

Brown Takes U.K. `Back to the 70s' With Plans to Tax Rich, Increase Debt Prime Minister Gordon Brown swept
aside three decades of economic orthodoxy with tax increases on
the rich and plans that will double Britain’s national debt.

Panama Sept economic activity up 8.24 pct yr/yr

US existing home sales fall, buyers sidelined

Morning Economic News - November 21, 2008

Early indications in overnight trading [10:30 PM Eastern] are that there may be some relief on Wall Street Friday after two bad down days, with US stock market futures up a bit under 1%. Asian stock indexes are down 2 to 3% and oil has fallen another 1.5% since the New York close. The dollar is trading up against the yen, down against the euro, pound and Canadian dollar.

Update: 3 AM Eastern
US stock market futures are up more than 3% and Asian stocks are trading up. The Nikkei is up 2.7%, the Hang Seng is up 3.54% and the S&P/ASX 200 is up 1.90%. NYMEX crude futures are up 1.5%, putting the price back just over $50/barrel and gasoline futures back above $1. The dollar is now down 1.5% against the Canadian dollar, up 1.4% against the yen and down against the euro and the pound.

Here's the latest economic news from Thursday:

Jobless Claims - November 20, 2008

• Initial Claims: 542,000


• Change from Last Week: Up 27,000


• 4-Week Moving Average: 506,500

Leading Index (US) - October 2008

• Leading Index: Down 0.8%


• Coincident Index: Up 0.2%


• Lagging Index: Up 0.1%

Money Supply (M1 and M2) - November 20, 2008

• M1 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $1473.1 billion


• M1 4-Week Average: $1496.3 billion


• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): $103.6 billion

Foreclosure freezes announced amid mixed housing news

The housing news this week has been a mixed bag, with good news on
interest rates and a decline in new housing starts offset by a drop in
new mortgage applications and with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae following
the lead of Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America in
announcing a foreclosure freeze.

Avoiding Foreclosure

There are lots of scams out there targeting homeowners in trouble
with their mortgages. While a legitimate sale is certainly the simplest
way to avoid foreclosure, there are, unfortunately, many con men
willing to take advantage of desperation and leave the struggling
homeowner worse off than they were before.

Fannie, Freddie Halt Foreclosures

Fannie and Freddie suspend foreclosure sales and evictions
on certain properties until January as it prepares for its
loan-modification program.

China Worries About Rising Job Losses

Chinese officials said unemployment has worsened and conditions will deteriorate until the second quarter of 2009.

New England Faces Big Downturn

New England is headed for a "significant recession" that
will strip the region of 250,000 jobs, or about 3.6 % of its
employment, economists said.

U.S. Jobless Claims Approach Highest Level Since 1982 as Recession Deepens The number of Americans filing for
unemployment benefits approached a 26-year high, and a gauge of
the economy's future performance dropped, sending yields on
benchmark Treasuries to record lows.

Singapore Lowers 2008 Growth Forecast; Says Economy May Contract Next Year Singapore lowered its growth
forecast for a fourth time this year and said the economy may
contract in 2009, prompting policy makers to implement more
measures to avoid a prolonged slowdown.

Leading Indicators in U.S. Decline More Than Forecast as Recession Deepens The index of leading U.S. economic
indicators fell in October for the third time in four months as
stocks and consumer confidence plunged, signaling a deepening
recession.

Shirakawa May Signal Bank of Japan's Reluctance to Revive Zero-Rate Policy Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki
Shirakawa will probably signal today that he's reluctant to
return interest rates to zero because the policy may discourage
lending rather than promote it.

Japan Economy Headed for Longest Slump Since Banking Crisis, Analysts Say Japan's economy will probably shrink
this year and next in the first back-to-back contractions since
the onset of the banking crisis a decade ago, economists say.

Swiss Central Bank Unexpectedly Lowers Benchmark Rate by 100 Basis Points Switzerland's central bank lowered
its benchmark interest rate by an unprecedented percentage point
after the economic growth outlook worsened.

Federal Reserve's Commercial-Paper Buying Rises; Cash Loans to Banks Drop The Federal Reserve expanded
commercial paper purchases from U.S. corporations, increasing
holdings by $13.5 billion, or 5.2 percent, while cash borrowing
by banks and Wall Street bond dealers declined.

South Korea Economy May Shrink for First Time Since 1998 Crisis, UBS Says UBS AG forecast South Korea's
economy will shrink 3 percent in 2009, which would be the first
contraction since the country's financial crisis in 1998.

EU Officials Craft Coordinated Economic-Stimulus Plan to Combat Recession The European Union is crafting a
coordinated economic-stimulus package to spur its 27-nation
economy based on contributions by each EU government.

No relief seen in global economic crisis

* Deflation feared

M-2 money supply up $29.6 bln Nov 10 week 

NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. M-2 money supply rose by
$29.6 billion in the November 10 week to $7,907.1 billion, the
Federal Reserve said on Thursday

Morning Economic News: Your Overnight Crisis Watch - November 20, 2008

Early indications are that Thursday won't bring much improvement in the stock market, as US stock index futures are down 1.5 to 2% and Asian stock markets are down 5 to 7%. [2:43 AM Eastern] NYMEX crude futures are flirting with $52/barrel and Brent crude spot prices are barely above $48. The dollar is down against the yen and euro, up against the pound and Canadian dollar.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - October 2008

• CPI-U: 216.573


• Monthly Change: Down 1.0%


• Year-to-year Change: Up 3.7%


• Core CPI-U: Down 0.1% [Seasonally adjusted]

Federal Open Market Committee Minutes - October 29, 2008

Given the recent intensification and broadening of the global financial
crisis, FOMC participants viewed the outlook for economic growth and
employment as having worsened significantly since June.

Housing Starts - October 2008

• Housing Starts: 791,000


• Monthly Change: Down 4.5%


• Year-to-year Change: Down 38%

Weekly Mortgage Survey - November 20, 2008

• Market Composite Index: 398.6


• Change: Down 6.2%


• Purchase Index: 248.5


• Change: Down 12.6%

US oil production to grow 8% next year

Demand does continue to lag, with total products supplied down 7%
compared to the same 4-week period in 2007 and jet fuel supplied down
more than 20%.

Fed Minutes Paint Gloomy Picture

The Fed expects economic contraction for up to a year, and worries the slowdown could last longer, according to FOMC minutes.

Consumer Prices Sink Amid Slump

U.S. consumer prices fell 1% in October from September,
their largest monthly decline since World War II. The drop adds to
deflation concerns.

Japan's Exports Fall the Most in Six Years as Global Recession Intensifies Japan's exports declined at the
fastest pace in almost seven years in October as the
intensifying global financial crisis stifled sales of cars and
electronics.

Bernanke May Find Deflation `Back on the Table' as Threat to U.S. Economy Five years after Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke helped stamp out the risk of deflation,
the threat is returning as the financial crisis and a worsening
economic slump pull inflation lower.

Consumer Prices in U.S. Decline 1%, Most on Record, as Fuel Costs Tumble The cost of living in the U.S. fell
by the most on record and construction began on the fewest homes
ever last month, evidence the economy is in the worst recession
in at least a quarter century.

India Inflation Slows to 5-Month Low, Giving Room for Cut in Interest Rate India's inflation unexpectedly
slowed to a five-month low, giving the central bank room to
reduce borrowing costs to shore up a slowing economy. Bonds rose.

Singapore Economy Probably Shrank, Adding Pressure For Stimulus Policies Singapore's economy probably shrank
last quarter as a manufacturing slump and easing demand for
financial services drove the nation into its first recession
since 2002, adding pressure on policy makers to stimulate growth.

South Korea Likely to Cut Interest Rates Further, State-Run Institute Says South Korea's central bank is likely
to cut interest rates further to protect the economy from the
global slowdown, according to the head of the Korea Development
Institute.

EU Preparing $164 Billion Package to Bolster Region's Growth, Germany Says The European Commission is working
with the 27 EU states on a 130 billion-euro ($164 billion)
package to bolster the region's economy amid recession, according
to German government officials.

Vietnam Cuts Key Rate to 11% to Protect Economy Against Global Slowdown Vietnam cut the benchmark interest
rate for the third time in a month to protect the economy
against the global financial crisis.

Fed to Cut Rates to Zero in January on Deflation Risk, JPMorgan Predicts The U.S. Federal Reserve will
probably cut interest rates to zero percent over the next two
months to staunch deflation, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Weak Japan exports pile on gloom, shares plunge

Foreign investors sold Japan stocks last week

Morning Economic News - November 19, 2008

Things are shaping up for a down open on Wall Street with US stock market futures down 1.5% from the Tuesday close and the Hang Seng, Nikkei and S&P/ASX 200 all down from 2/3 to 3/4 percent. NYMEX Crude oil futures are down 69 cents/barrel (1.27%) and Brent Crude spot prices are near $48/barrel. The US dollar is up against the Canadian dollar and the euro, down against the yen and the pound. [4:49 AM Eastern]

Housing Market Index - November 2008

• Current Month Index: 9


• Monthly Change: Down 5


• Current 1-Family Sales Index: 8

Producer Price Index - October 2008

• Finished Goods Index: Down 2.8%


• Finished Goods Core: Up 0.4%


• Finished Goods Annual Change: Up 5.2%

State Street Investor Confidence Index - November 2008

• Global Index: 57


• Monthly Change: Down 1.4


• Year-to-year Change: Down 18.8%

Treasury International Capital - September 2008

• Foreign purchases of Long Term US Securities: $30.9 billion


• Official purchases: -$4.8 billion


• Private purchases: $35.7 billion

Home-Builder Index Plunges to New Low

Home builders' confidence in the market plunged to a record
low amid overwhelming uncertainty about the economy. Meanwhile, resale
prices fell in four out of five U.S. cities in the third quarter.

ECB Stays Course on Pace of Easing

Amid fresh data confirming a euro-zone recession, the
European Central Bank faces criticism that it is cutting interest rates
too slowly.

Medvedev Warns Crisis Is Spreading

Russia's president pledged to use the Kremlin's oil wealth
to help stricken industries, saying the financial crisis has spread to
the real economy.

Russia Suffers Plummeting Reserves in Defense of Ruble as Growth Declines Russia's foreign-exchange reserves
are draining fast and may take almost a decade of economic
stability with them.

Australian Rate Cuts, Government Spending Will Buffer Economy, Edey Says The biggest round of Australian
interest-rate cuts since a recession in 1991 and government cash
handouts will cushion the economy against slower global growth
and falling commodity prices, a central bank official said.

Bernanke's Cash Injections Risk Eclipse of Fed's Benchmark Interest Rate The Federal Reserve's efforts to
rescue the U.S. from financial collapse risks the eclipse of
the central bank's benchmark interest rate as the most important
signal of monetary policy.

Spain Consumption Shrinks as Economy Heads Into First Recession Since 1993 Spanish household spending fell in
the third quarter as the global credit crunch combined with the
collapse of a domestic housing boom to edge Spain toward its
first recession in 15 years.

ECB's Trichet Says World Suffering Worst Financial Crisis of Postwar Era European Central Bank President Jean-
Claude Trichet said the world is experiencing its worst financial
crisis since the aftermath of World War Two.

US non-residential construction index falls-AIA

Japan Sept all-industries index -0.1 pct mth/mth

U.S. consumer confidence falls to record low -ABC

US home builder sentiment at new low, buyers demur

Morning Economic News - November 18, 2008

Asian stock markets traded down Tuesday, while US stock market futures are down a fraction of a percent [3:30 AM Eastern]. The Nikkei was down more than 2%, while the Hang Seng was down more than 5%. Oil is up 1%. The dollar is up against the Canadian dollar, the yen and the euro; down against the pound.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey - November 2008

• Business Conditions Index: -25.4


• Monthly Change: Down 0.8


• New Orders Index: -22.2

Industrial Production - October 2008

• Industrial Production Index: 107.3


• (Base year 2002, Seasonally Adjusted)


• Monthly Change: Up 1.4 (1.3%)


• Manufacturing Change: Up 0.6%

Paulson: New Rescue Efforts Unlikely

Paulson, in an interview, said he prefers to use the
remaining funds from the $700 billion rescue for emergencies rather
than new programs.

Chidambaram Says India's Economic Growth to `Bounce Back' to 9% Next Year India's economy will ``bounce back'' to
9 percent growth next year as local demand holds up amid a global
recession, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said.

Paulson Says `Good Bit' Needed for Economy; Summers Urges 3-Year Stimulus U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry
Paulson and two of President-elect Barack Obama's top economic
advisers agreed that further steps are needed to shore up the
economy, while clashing over tax policies.

Nakagawa Says Japan May Consider Further Steps to Jolt Economy From Slump Japan's government may consider
further measures to jolt the economy out of a recession, Finance
Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said.

U.S. Industrial Output Rises More Than Forecast as Oil Refineries Recover Industrial production rebounded in
October after refinery shutdowns from Gulf Coast hurricanes
caused the biggest drop since 1946 the month before.

Japan's `Least Ugly' Economy May Outpace U.S., Europe in Financial Crisis Japan's newly declared recession may
be a chance to show that the world's second-largest economy can
finally outperform the U.S. and Europe.

Bank of Japan May Seek `Double Impact' When Selling Yen, BNP Paribas Says The Bank of Japan may seek the
``double impact'' of supporting exporters and increasing money
supply by selling its own currency without absorbing funds after
the intervention, BNP Paribas Securities Japan Ltd. said.

Chinese Manufacturers May Suffer as Lenders Channel Money to Public Works China's small manufacturers are
likely to be starved of cash even after the government directed
banks to increase lending as part of its 4 trillion yuan ($586
billion) plan to buoy the economy.

Crude Oil Rises as U.S. Industrial Production Gain May Raise Fuel Demand Crude oil rose from a 21-month low
after U.S. industrial production gained, increasing expectations
that fuel demand may improve in the world's largest consumer.

Forecasters: US in 14 month recession, Q4 looks rough

Morning Economic News - November 17, 2008

US stock market futures are up under 1%, while Asian markets are mixed - the Nikkei up 0.3% and the Hang Seng down 1%. Oil is down 2% on news that China's demand has contracted sharply since the financial crisis onset. The dollar is down against the Canadian dollar, pound and euro, up against the yen.

Import Export Price Indexes - October 2008

• Import Prices: Down 4.7%


• Non-petroleum Import Prices: Down 0.9%


• Export Prices: Down 1.9%

Retail Sales - October 2008

• Total Retail and Food Service Sales: $363.7 billion


• Monthly Change: Down 2.8%


• Annual Change: Down 4.1%

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead November 17 to 21, 2008

With the big G-20 financial summit happening over the weekend, the
first part of the week will see markets largely moving on the basis of
political news. From there, interest will move to the industrial
production figures and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey as
manufacturing has started to show the effects of the downturn with
increased exports unable to offset badly lagging auto sales and exports
themselves starting to drop.

U.K. Jobless Likely to Grow

British business groups warned the country's recession will
be worse than previously expected, driving up unemployment to nearly 3
million by 2010.

G-20 Leaders Tighten Their Grip on Banks

Global leaders ordered a clampdown on reckless market
behavior, including steps they said would help prevent the next credit
crisis.

Japan's Economy Slides Into First Recession Since 2001; GDP Shrinks 0.4% Japan's economy, the world's second
largest, entered its first recession since 2001 last quarter and
the government and economists say conditions may get even worse.

G-20 Plan for Tighter Financial Rules Signals Smaller Profits After Crisis Leaders of the world's biggest
developed and emerging nations put banks and investors on notice
they will need to hold more capital and reveal more about their
holdings, signaling the industry may emerge from the current
crisis with less potential for profit.

FDIC May Alter $1.4 Trillion Debt-Insurance Program After Banks Complain The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
may revise a $1.4 trillion debt-insurance program to address
complaints that it would spur an exodus from the $250 billion
market for overnight loans between banks.

Factory Output in U.S. Probably Rose in October on Rebound From Hurricanes U.S. industrial production probably
rose in October as work at Gulf Coast refineries rebounded from
shutdowns following Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, economists said
ahead of a government report today.

Crisis sends Japan into recession, outlook bleak

Morning Economic News - November 14, 2008

Although bad job data got much of the attention Thursday, there were a few pieces of good news, mostly from the consumer sector. The RBC CASH Index's measure of consumer expectations rose 18.2 points to 23.3, potential good news for retailers expecting the absolute worst for the holiday season. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 9% increase in home purchase mortgage applications, another in a series of strong signals from the housing market which has been the ultimate source of much of the financial mess.

Asian stocks are up Friday, the Nikkei up 2.72%, the Hang Seng up 2.43% and the S&P/ASX 200 up 1.43%, but US stock market futures are down about 1.3%. OIl prices are down 1% and the US dollar is up against the Canadian dollar. The dollar is also up against the euro and the pound, down against the yen. [4:%6 AM Eastern]

RBC CASH Index - November 2008

• CASH Index Reading: 34.7


• Monthly Change: Down 2.3


• Expectations Index: 23.3


• Expectations Index Change: Up 18.2

Monthly Treasury Statement - October 2008

• Monthly Deficit/Surplus: $ 237,177 million deficit


• Prior Year Monthly: $56,838 million deficit

Foreign Trade - September 2008

• Exports: $155.4 billion


• Monthly Change: Down $9.9 billion


• Imports: $211.9 billion


• Monthly Change: Down $12.5 billion

Jobless Claims - November 13, 2008

• Initial Claims: 516,000


• Change from Last Week: Up 32,000

Money Supply - November 13, 2008

• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $103.7 billion


• M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $540.5 billion

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - November 13, 2008

• Market Composite Index: 425


• Change: Up 11.9%


• Purchase Index: 284.4


• Change: Up 9%

Jet fuel demand down more than 18% compared to last year

US commercial petroleum inventories rose slightly last week with
gasoline and distillate fuel inventories rising, crude oil inventories
unchanged and propane/propylene inventories dropping. Refinery
operations dropped for a second week and production of both gasoline
and distillate fuels fell. On the demand side, gasoline demand is
picking back up, but still down 1.9% from last year and with jet fuel
demand down 18.8% total product demand is still down more than 6.5%.

Mortgage applications rebound, slowing economy brings rates down

Both the Mortgage Bankers Association and Freddie Mac reported a drop
in Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) rates in their latest surveys, with
Freddie Mac reporting an increase in 1-year Adjustable Rate Mortgage
(ARM) rates and the Mortgage Bankers Association reporting a drop. The
Mortgage Bankers Association also reported that new mortgage
applications rose last week, 9% for purchases and 16% for refinances.

Germany Slips Into Recession

Germany'seconomy is turning into a major casualty of the global downturn despite
the lack of a housing bubble or overspending on credit.

Europe Probably Entered First Recession Since 1993 After Credit Crisis Hit Europe's economy probably fell into
its first recession in 15 years in the third quarter, paving the
way for deeper cuts to interest rates and taxes amid the worst
financial crisis since the Great Depression.

France Dodges Recession as Economy Unexpectedly Expanded in Third Quarter France's economy unexpectedly grew
in the third quarter, dodging the recession that is hammering
Germany as consumer spending gained and exports rebounded.

Spanish Economy Contracts for First Time in 15 Years Amid Financial Crisis Spain's economy contracted for the
first time in 15 years in the third quarter as the global
financial crisis combined with the collapse of a domestic
housing boom to push the economy toward a recession.

Italy Falls Into Fourth Recession in Less Than a Decade on Credit Crisis Italy, the third-biggest economy in
the euro region, slipped into a recession in the third quarter
as the fallout from the yearlong credit crisis choked growth.

China Sees `Formidable Challenge' to Prevent Slump as Investment Weakens China faces a ``formidable
challenge'' to prevent a slump in the world's fourth-biggest
economy, the government warned today as cooling factory and
property investment signaled a deepening slowdown.

Textron, Home Depot, Honda Ask Fed to Let Them Into Commercial-Paper Fund A group of companies including
Textron Inc., Home Depot Inc. and Honda Motor Co. are pressing
the Federal Reserve to expand purchases of commercial paper to
include them, two people briefed on the matter said.

Jobless Rolls in U.S. Rise to 25-Year High, Exports Plunge on Global Slump The global economic slowdown is
deepening, according to reports today that showed the number of
Americans collecting jobless benefits jumped to a 25-year high
and U.S. exports plunged.

Asia's Emerging-Economy Exports May Slump 20% Over Next Year, Nomura Says Exports from Asia's developing
economies may decline 20 percent over the next year as a
deepening global slowdown hurts demand for the region's products,
Nomura International (HK) Ltd. said.

Hong Kong's Economic Growth Slows to 1.7%, Weakest Pace Since SARS in 2003 Hong Kong's economy grew at the
slowest pace since a disease epidemic in 2003, as the global
financial crisis cut exports and spending cooled.

China capital spending slows as economy softens

BEIJING, Nov 14 (Reuters) - China's capital spending was
slightly lower than expected in October, consistent with
weakness in a batch of data this week as Beijing battles to
keep the world's fourth-largest economy from slowing too
sharply

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares rally after Wall St; sterling tumbles

LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Shares in Asia and Europe
followed Wall Street higher on Friday as steep falls earlier
this week attracted bargain hunters, while intensifying concerns
about the UK economy knocked sterling to fresh 13-year lows.

Morning Economic News - November 13, 2008

It's shaping up to be another down day on Walls Street Thursday. Asian stock markets are down - the Nikkei, Hang Seng and S&P/ASX 200 are all off more than 5% - and US stock market futures are off about a percent [2:30 AM Eastern]. Crude oil futures are down 1.8% and the dollar is up slightly against the Canadian dollar. The dollar is also up against the yen, euro and pound.

Korean economic slide deepens

The Korean economy headed further into the tank in September with the Leading Index adding a 0.7% decline to the 2.3% August drop
and the Coincident Index dropping 0.4%, twice the August rate. Three of
the four coincident indicators fell in September, with only monthly
cash earnings improving.

Bailout's Next Phase: Consumers

Paulson abandoned his original plan to buy troubled assets
from financial institutions. The Treasury will now focus on struggling
consumers.

Outlook in Russia, Ukraine Dims

Russia may have to tap into rainy-day reserves of billions
of dollars, while Ukraine data showed the country moving quickly toward
a recession next year.

China's Stimulus Package May Also Give California, Brazil, Japan a Boost China's stimulus package may help
support sales of Japanese farm equipment, Brazilian iron ore
and California machine tools, taking some of the edge off what
might be the worst global recession in three decades.

Germany Enters Recession After Economy Contracted 0.5% in Third Quarter The German economy, Europe's largest,
contracted more than economists expected in the third quarter,
confirming it has entered its worst recession in at least 12
years as the global financial crisis curbs exports and spending.

China's Industrial-Output Growth Slumps, Adding to Risk of Deeper Slowdown China's industrial output grew at a
slower pace than any economist forecast in October, stoking
concern that the biggest contributor to global growth is
running out of steam.

Paulson's Credibility Takes Another Hit as He Abandons Asset-Purchase Plan Henry Paulson became Treasury
secretary 28 months ago, when he was at the top of the financial
world: Wall Street's best-paid chief executive officer, capping
his career with a high-profile sojourn in public service.

Fed Pressures Banks to Maintain Lending, Warns on Dividend-Payment Levels The Federal Reserve and other U.S.
regulators told banks to maintain lending to ``creditworthy''
borrowers, and warned against dividend levels that would cut
funds available for loans, causing a deeper economic slump.

King Says BOE Is Prepared to Cut Interest Rates Again as Inflation Slows Bank of England Governor Mervyn King
said policy makers are prepared to reduce interest rates as low
as needed to prevent a recession from fueling deflationary
pressures.

Bank of Japan's Nakamura Says Economy May Deteriorate Further Amid Turmoil Japan's economy is at risk of
deteriorating further as the global financial turmoil slows
growth worldwide, central bank board member Seiji Nakamura said.

Bank of Canada Likely to Cut Rates Again Amid `Major Shocks,' Jenkins Says Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor
Paul Jenkins said policy makers will probably cut interest rates
again amid ``major shocks'' including a global credit crisis,
faltering economic growth and lower prices for commodity exports.

India Inflation Slows, Boosting Chances of Further Cuts in Interest Rates India's inflation rate fell more
than any economist expected to a five-month low, giving the
central bank room to further reduce borrowing costs to help
protect the economy from a global slowdown.

Plunge in steel demand pushes Ukraine towards recession

U.S. GDP forecast to decline 1.4 pct in 2009-EIA

BoE signals more rate cuts as economy shrinks

Morning Economic News - November 12, 2008

Asian stock indexes are down slightly while US stock market futures are up a fraction of a percent in overnight trading [3:07 AM Eastern]. Oil prices are down less than 1% and the dollar has moved a small fraction of a percent against the Canadian dollar, yen and pound. The dollar is down 0.22% against the euro.

Spanish economy holding on

The Spanish Leading Index dropped 0.2% in September, but this followed a 0.6% increase in the Leading Index in August
that stemmed almost entirely from expansion of Spanish contribution to
euro money supply, leaving the index up substantially for the two month
period.

U.S. Steps Up Help for Homeowners

Fannie and Freddie will help streamline the modification of
loans for potentially hundreds of thousands of homeowners at risk of
foreclosure.

China Retail Sales Rise 22% as Financial Crisis Fails to Rein in Spending China's retail sales rose 22
percent, close to the fastest pace in nine years, signaling
that domestic demand may help the fourth-biggest economy
withstand a looming global recession.

Japan's Economy Likely Ground to a Halt in Third Quarter as Exports Waned Japan's economy was probably at a
standstill in the third quarter as a deepening global slowdown
and weak demand at home edged the nation closer to its first
recession in six years.

Federal Reserve Said to Seek Lead on Regulating Credit-Swap Clearinghouse The Federal Reserve is working on a
plan that would give it authority to regulate the clearing of
trades for the $33 trillion credit-default swap market,
according to people with knowledge of the proposal.

Japan Consumer Sentiment Fell to a Record Low in October as Stocks Plunged Japan's consumers became the most
pessimistic they've been in at least 26 years, making it
unlikely they will spend to support an economy weakened by
slower global demand and falling stock prices.

U.K. Home Sales Drop to Lowest in at Least 30 Years as House Prices Fall U.K. home sales declined to the
lowest level in at least three decades and the lending freeze
pushed down prices for a 15th month, the Royal Institution of
Chartered Surveyors said.

Australian Wages Growth Slows to 0.9% in Third Quarter as Economy Weakens Australian wages growth slowed in
the third quarter, adding to signs the economy is weakening.

Japan consumer mood hits new low on recession fear

World Bank cuts growth forecasts, offers more aid

Mexico auto production, exports rise in October

Morning Economic News - November 11, 2008

US stock markets Tuesday will still be trying to process Monday's news - Deutsche Bank rated General Motors shares as worthless predicting bankruptcy by year end, the second largest US consumer electronics retailer did file bankruptcy less than a month before retail's biggest day of the year, and DHL announced it will cut 9500 jobs and no longer offer shipping services in the United States. To top it off, economist Nouriel Roubini is predicting another 20-25% drop in the US stock market before the end of 2009. Amazingly US stock market futures are only down a notch, with the Dow Jones Industial Average and the S&P 500 down less than half a percent and the NASDAQ down just over a half percent [4:02 AM Eastern]. Asian stock markets aren't faring as well, with the Nikkei down 3%, the Hang Seng down 4.77% and the S&P/ASX200 down 3.58%. The dollar is mixed, down against the Canadian dollar, the euro and the yen, up against the pound. Oil is down 3% with gasoline flirting with the 130 cent mark.

Employment Trends Index - October 2008

• Employment Trends Index: 105.3


• Monthly Change: Down 1.8%


• Year-to-year Change: Down 12%

Deutsche Bank: GM Is Worth Nothing.

Deutsche Bank said publicly today what many detractors of General Motors Inc. have been thinking for some time — the company is worthless.

In a note, Rod Lache of Deutsche reduced his rating on the shares to
sell (helpful) and put a price target of $0 on the automaker, saying
the company has few options at this point beyond “external government
intervention.”

Data Show Deeper Recession in Europe

European economies are sliding deeper into recession, with
retail sales falling in Britain and factory output declining in Italy
and France.

Economists Urge G-20 to Act Quickly

Days before world leaders convene in Washington, they are
getting a raft of advice from academic economists on addressing the
financial crisis.

U.K. Home Sales Drop to Lowest in at Least 30 Years as House Prices Fall U.K. home sales declined to the lowest
level in at least three decades and the lending freeze pushed down
prices for a 15th month, the Royal Institution of Chartered
Surveyors said.

China's Inflation Slows, Leaving Room for Further Interest-Rate Reductions China's inflation cooled to the
slowest pace in 17 months, making further interest-rate cuts
more likely as the world's fourth-biggest economy loses steam.

ECB's Quaden Sees Forecast Revisions Paving Way for Lower Interest Rates European Central Bank council member
Guy Quaden said he expects the bank to reduce its forecasts for
economic growth and inflation ``substantially'' next month,
paving the way for lower interest rates.

China's `Huge' Stimulus May Help World Economy Along With Domestic Growth China's massive effort to shore up
its domestic economy may also do the world a favor.

Australia Faces First Recession in Two Decades as Export Outlook Darkens Australia's economy, which cruised
through the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the dot-com bust, is
facing the prospect of its first recession in almost two decades.

Paulson's Revised AIG Terms Begin Treasury Transfusions to `Zombie' Firms The revised bailout of American
International Group Inc. marks a new phase in the government's
effort to shore up financial markets: It's the first time cash
from the rescue fund Congress created last month has been
committed to a failing company.

German Investor Confidence Probably Stayed Near Record Low in November German investor confidence probably
stayed near a record low in November after the financial crisis
pushed Europe's largest economy to the brink of a recession, a
survey of economists shows.

Japan exports tumble as global downturn bites

Japan Oct corporate bankruptcies up 13.4 pct yr/yr

Japan exports fall 9.9 pct in first 20 days of Oct

Circuit City files for bankruptcy protection

Morning Economic News - November 10, 2008

US stock market futures are trading up slightly and in a fairly tight range with a mix of news out over the weekend, both positive and negative. Asian stock markets are up substantially 3 to 6% with the news that China plans a nearly $600 billion economic stimulus plan. Energy prices are up, no surprise after Obama transition officials released plans to reinstate the executive ban on US offshore drilling and to enact a windfall profits tax on US oil companies over the weekend. The dollar is down against the Canadian dollar, typical on oil price increases, and up against the yen, euro and pound. [2:45 AM Eastern]

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead November 10 to 14, 2008

After last week's bad labor market reports and big job loss numbers
Friday, Monday will kick off with a bang with the Conference Board's
release of the Employment Trends Index. Various other factors led to a
rally in spite of the bad employment report Friday – we'll see if that
holds on Monday or if profit taking sets in on the reminder of bad news
as the only major indicator of the day.

Consumer Credit - September 2008

• Total outstanding consumer credit: $2588.1 billion


• Total rate of change: Up 3.2%

Employment Situation - October 2008

• Total Employment: 144,958 million


• Nonfarm Payroll Employment: 136,899 million


• Monthly Change: Down 240,000

Pending Home Sales - September 2008

• Pending Home Sales Index: 89.2


• Monthly Change: Down 4.6


• Yearly Change: Up 1.6

Wholesale Trade - September 2008

• Wholesale Sales: $396.2 billion,


• Monthly Change: Down 1.5%


• Year-to-year Change: Up 9.1%

G-20 Ministers Pledge Cooperation

Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers said
Sunday they would work urgently together to support economic growth and
foster financial stability, and lauded nations that have taken bold
action.

China Sets Big Stimulus Plan

China unveiled an economic stimulus program it billed as
totaling $586 billion, aiming to bolster domestic demand and help avert
a global recession.

China Unveils $586 Billion Stimulus Plan as World Heads Toward Recession China pledged a 4 trillion yuan ($586
billion) stimulus plan to prop up growth in the fourth-largest
economy as the world heads toward a recession.

Japan Machine Orders Have Biggest Quarterly Drop in Decade as Exports Slow Japanese machinery orders tumbled
10.4 percent last quarter, matching the biggest drop on record,
as manufacturers cut investment plans in anticipation the global
slowdown will stifle overseas demand.

G-20 Calls for Interest-Rate Cuts, More Spending to Stem Financial Crisis The Group of 20 nations is prepared
to act ``urgently'' to bolster growth and called on governments
to cut interest rates and raise spending as the world's leading
industrialized economies battle the threat of a recession.

Brown Seeks `Global Consensus' on Tax, Spending Policies at G-20 Summit U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown
will call on governments around the world to coordinate tax and
spending policies to shore up a slowing world economy.

Morning Economic News - November 7, 2008

There are some signs we may see a stock market rally Friday, though its by no means a sure thing. Oil prices are up slightly (1.6%), the Hang Seng Index is up 3.29% and US stock market futures are up 1.6-2% [3:16 AM Eastern] and European markets have opened to the positive. On the negative side, the Nikkei is down 3.55% and the S&P/ASX 200 is down 2.37%. The dollar is down against the yen, euro, pound and Canadian dollar.

Monster Employment Index - October 2008

• Index: 150


• Monthly Change: Down 10


• Year-to-year Change: Down 38 Points

Money Supply - November 6, 2008

• M1 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $1453.9 billion


• M1 4-Week Average: $1466.1 billion


• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $84.8 billion

Jobless Claims - November 6, 2008

• Initial Claims: 481,000


• Change from Last Week: Down 4,000


• 4-Week Moving Average: 477,000

Mortgage rates drop back below last years levels

Freddie Mac reported Thursday that Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) and
Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) rates all fell this week after spiking
last week. FRM rates are now slightly below year ago levels as are
1-year ARM rates, but 5-year Treasury Indexed hybrid ARMS are slightly
above the rate from the same week in 2007.

Big rate cut from European Central Bank, massive cut from Bank of England

The Bank of England dropped its key interest rate by 1.5% and the
European Central Bank dropped key interest rate targets by 0.5%
Thursday in a further bid to spur lending and economic activity. This
leaves rates for both banks well above the US Federal Reserves target
federal funds rate of 1%, leaving open carry trade possibilities if the
European economy begins to recover but also leaving less chance of a
quick and strong recovery in Europe.

Firms Say Bailout Plan Lacks Clarity

Ambiguity on key aspects of Treasury's financial-rescue plan is making a majority of financial firms surveyed hesitant.

Oil Supplies Will Tighten, IEA Warns

The world faces mounting uncertainty and escalating costs on the energy
front in the years ahead, the IEA says in a largely gloomy annual
report.

Zero-Interest-Rate World May Be Ahead as King, Trichet Take an Ax to Rates The age of free money may be at hand.

Bank of Korea Cuts Rates for Third Time in a Month to Stave Off Recession The Bank of Korea lowered interest
rates for the third time in four weeks and signaled it's ready
to act again to prevent the economy from sinking into the first
recession in a decade. The nation's shares and currency rose.

Sakakibara Says Yen May Reach 80 per Dollar; Strong Currency to Aid Japan Japan will benefit from a strong yen
because it will hold down prices for raw materials, said Eisuke
Sakakibara, formerly Japan's top currency official.

Bank of England Leads European Central Banks in Rate Cut as Economies Slow The Bank of England led European
central banks in reducing borrowing costs to counter the worst
financial crisis in almost a century, cutting its key rate by
1.5 percentage points to the lowest level since 1955.

French September Trade Gap Expands to a Record $8 Billion as Exports Fall The French trade deficit widened to a
record in September as a global economic slowdown curbed exports.

Global Crisis Shifts From Credit Crunch to Economics Slowdown, APEC Says The principal risk posed by the global
financial crisis has moved from a credit crunch set off by
subprime mortgages to economic slowdown, the finance ministers of
the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation said.

S.Korea joins global rate cuts, more easing seen

Bank of England makes shock 150 basis point rate cut

TABLE-U.S. M-2 money supply down $48.2 bln Oct 27 week

CEO confidence index plunges to record low-survey