Morning Economic News: Your Overnight Crisis Watch - November 20, 2008

Early indications are that Thursday won't bring much improvement in the stock market, as US stock index futures are down 1.5 to 2% and Asian stock markets are down 5 to 7%. [2:43 AM Eastern] NYMEX crude futures are flirting with $52/barrel and Brent crude spot prices are barely above $48. The dollar is down against the yen and euro, up against the pound and Canadian dollar.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - October 2008

• CPI-U: 216.573


• Monthly Change: Down 1.0%


• Year-to-year Change: Up 3.7%


• Core CPI-U: Down 0.1% [Seasonally adjusted]

Federal Open Market Committee Minutes - October 29, 2008

Given the recent intensification and broadening of the global financial
crisis, FOMC participants viewed the outlook for economic growth and
employment as having worsened significantly since June.

Housing Starts - October 2008

• Housing Starts: 791,000


• Monthly Change: Down 4.5%


• Year-to-year Change: Down 38%

Weekly Mortgage Survey - November 20, 2008

• Market Composite Index: 398.6


• Change: Down 6.2%


• Purchase Index: 248.5


• Change: Down 12.6%

US oil production to grow 8% next year

Demand does continue to lag, with total products supplied down 7%
compared to the same 4-week period in 2007 and jet fuel supplied down
more than 20%.

Fed Minutes Paint Gloomy Picture

The Fed expects economic contraction for up to a year, and worries the slowdown could last longer, according to FOMC minutes.

Consumer Prices Sink Amid Slump

U.S. consumer prices fell 1% in October from September,
their largest monthly decline since World War II. The drop adds to
deflation concerns.

Japan's Exports Fall the Most in Six Years as Global Recession Intensifies Japan's exports declined at the
fastest pace in almost seven years in October as the
intensifying global financial crisis stifled sales of cars and
electronics.

Bernanke May Find Deflation `Back on the Table' as Threat to U.S. Economy Five years after Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke helped stamp out the risk of deflation,
the threat is returning as the financial crisis and a worsening
economic slump pull inflation lower.

Consumer Prices in U.S. Decline 1%, Most on Record, as Fuel Costs Tumble The cost of living in the U.S. fell
by the most on record and construction began on the fewest homes
ever last month, evidence the economy is in the worst recession
in at least a quarter century.

India Inflation Slows to 5-Month Low, Giving Room for Cut in Interest Rate India's inflation unexpectedly
slowed to a five-month low, giving the central bank room to
reduce borrowing costs to shore up a slowing economy. Bonds rose.

Singapore Economy Probably Shrank, Adding Pressure For Stimulus Policies Singapore's economy probably shrank
last quarter as a manufacturing slump and easing demand for
financial services drove the nation into its first recession
since 2002, adding pressure on policy makers to stimulate growth.

South Korea Likely to Cut Interest Rates Further, State-Run Institute Says South Korea's central bank is likely
to cut interest rates further to protect the economy from the
global slowdown, according to the head of the Korea Development
Institute.

EU Preparing $164 Billion Package to Bolster Region's Growth, Germany Says The European Commission is working
with the 27 EU states on a 130 billion-euro ($164 billion)
package to bolster the region's economy amid recession, according
to German government officials.

Vietnam Cuts Key Rate to 11% to Protect Economy Against Global Slowdown Vietnam cut the benchmark interest
rate for the third time in a month to protect the economy
against the global financial crisis.

Fed to Cut Rates to Zero in January on Deflation Risk, JPMorgan Predicts The U.S. Federal Reserve will
probably cut interest rates to zero percent over the next two
months to staunch deflation, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Weak Japan exports pile on gloom, shares plunge

Foreign investors sold Japan stocks last week