Morning Economic News - November 14, 2008

Although bad job data got much of the attention Thursday, there were a few pieces of good news, mostly from the consumer sector. The RBC CASH Index's measure of consumer expectations rose 18.2 points to 23.3, potential good news for retailers expecting the absolute worst for the holiday season. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 9% increase in home purchase mortgage applications, another in a series of strong signals from the housing market which has been the ultimate source of much of the financial mess.

Asian stocks are up Friday, the Nikkei up 2.72%, the Hang Seng up 2.43% and the S&P/ASX 200 up 1.43%, but US stock market futures are down about 1.3%. OIl prices are down 1% and the US dollar is up against the Canadian dollar. The dollar is also up against the euro and the pound, down against the yen. [4:%6 AM Eastern]

RBC CASH Index - November 2008

• CASH Index Reading: 34.7


• Monthly Change: Down 2.3


• Expectations Index: 23.3


• Expectations Index Change: Up 18.2

Monthly Treasury Statement - October 2008

• Monthly Deficit/Surplus: $ 237,177 million deficit


• Prior Year Monthly: $56,838 million deficit

Foreign Trade - September 2008

• Exports: $155.4 billion


• Monthly Change: Down $9.9 billion


• Imports: $211.9 billion


• Monthly Change: Down $12.5 billion

Jobless Claims - November 13, 2008

• Initial Claims: 516,000


• Change from Last Week: Up 32,000

Money Supply - November 13, 2008

• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $103.7 billion


• M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $540.5 billion

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - November 13, 2008

• Market Composite Index: 425


• Change: Up 11.9%


• Purchase Index: 284.4


• Change: Up 9%

Jet fuel demand down more than 18% compared to last year

US commercial petroleum inventories rose slightly last week with
gasoline and distillate fuel inventories rising, crude oil inventories
unchanged and propane/propylene inventories dropping. Refinery
operations dropped for a second week and production of both gasoline
and distillate fuels fell. On the demand side, gasoline demand is
picking back up, but still down 1.9% from last year and with jet fuel
demand down 18.8% total product demand is still down more than 6.5%.

Mortgage applications rebound, slowing economy brings rates down

Both the Mortgage Bankers Association and Freddie Mac reported a drop
in Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) rates in their latest surveys, with
Freddie Mac reporting an increase in 1-year Adjustable Rate Mortgage
(ARM) rates and the Mortgage Bankers Association reporting a drop. The
Mortgage Bankers Association also reported that new mortgage
applications rose last week, 9% for purchases and 16% for refinances.

Germany Slips Into Recession

Germany'seconomy is turning into a major casualty of the global downturn despite
the lack of a housing bubble or overspending on credit.

Europe Probably Entered First Recession Since 1993 After Credit Crisis Hit Europe's economy probably fell into
its first recession in 15 years in the third quarter, paving the
way for deeper cuts to interest rates and taxes amid the worst
financial crisis since the Great Depression.

France Dodges Recession as Economy Unexpectedly Expanded in Third Quarter France's economy unexpectedly grew
in the third quarter, dodging the recession that is hammering
Germany as consumer spending gained and exports rebounded.

Spanish Economy Contracts for First Time in 15 Years Amid Financial Crisis Spain's economy contracted for the
first time in 15 years in the third quarter as the global
financial crisis combined with the collapse of a domestic
housing boom to push the economy toward a recession.

Italy Falls Into Fourth Recession in Less Than a Decade on Credit Crisis Italy, the third-biggest economy in
the euro region, slipped into a recession in the third quarter
as the fallout from the yearlong credit crisis choked growth.

China Sees `Formidable Challenge' to Prevent Slump as Investment Weakens China faces a ``formidable
challenge'' to prevent a slump in the world's fourth-biggest
economy, the government warned today as cooling factory and
property investment signaled a deepening slowdown.

Textron, Home Depot, Honda Ask Fed to Let Them Into Commercial-Paper Fund A group of companies including
Textron Inc., Home Depot Inc. and Honda Motor Co. are pressing
the Federal Reserve to expand purchases of commercial paper to
include them, two people briefed on the matter said.

Jobless Rolls in U.S. Rise to 25-Year High, Exports Plunge on Global Slump The global economic slowdown is
deepening, according to reports today that showed the number of
Americans collecting jobless benefits jumped to a 25-year high
and U.S. exports plunged.

Asia's Emerging-Economy Exports May Slump 20% Over Next Year, Nomura Says Exports from Asia's developing
economies may decline 20 percent over the next year as a
deepening global slowdown hurts demand for the region's products,
Nomura International (HK) Ltd. said.

Hong Kong's Economic Growth Slows to 1.7%, Weakest Pace Since SARS in 2003 Hong Kong's economy grew at the
slowest pace since a disease epidemic in 2003, as the global
financial crisis cut exports and spending cooled.

China capital spending slows as economy softens

BEIJING, Nov 14 (Reuters) - China's capital spending was
slightly lower than expected in October, consistent with
weakness in a batch of data this week as Beijing battles to
keep the world's fourth-largest economy from slowing too
sharply

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares rally after Wall St; sterling tumbles

LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Shares in Asia and Europe
followed Wall Street higher on Friday as steep falls earlier
this week attracted bargain hunters, while intensifying concerns
about the UK economy knocked sterling to fresh 13-year lows.