Morning Economic News - December 31, 2008

Commentary and Overnight Trading

The biggest news of the day is likely to get lost in the news of "record drops" and "record lows" in home prices and consumer confidence. The oil producing states of the Gulf region finalized an agreement to have a common currency and a common central bank by 2010. This is pretty significant news for the dollar, which is the currency of oil sales worldwide, by creating an alternative currency in the oil rich region. The pressure will grow greater the closer the monetary union gets to implementation.

The dollar is doing ok in early overnight trading, up a bit against the Canadian dollar, down less than a tenth percent against the yen and down just over two-tenths percent against the euro and pound. And the news doesn't seem to be doing much for oil prices either, as they're down 2% in overnight trading so far. US stock market futures are mixed, with movement in the 0.75 to 2 point (not percent, but point) range on all indexes. Asian markets are up. [12:25 AM Eastern]

Tuesday's Economic News

Case-Shiller Home Price Index - October 2008

• Composite 20 Index: 158.16


• Monthly Change: Down 2.2%

Consumer Confidence Index - December 2008

• Consumer Confidence Index: 38


• Monthly Change: Down 6.7

Record drop in home prices and consumer confidence at record low

S & P reported another big drop in its Case Shiller Home Price Index,
which covers the top 20 metropolitan areas in the US and the Conference
Board reported that US consumer confidence fell to a record low.

What I'm Reading

Home Prices Decline at Record Pace

A measure of October home prices dropped by the sharpest
annual rate on record. Separately, consumer confidence hit a new low in
December.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, U.A.E., Oman Approve Monetary Union Gulf Arab leaders approved a monetary
union agreement that aims to create a central bank and single
currency for the region that will help boost trade and strengthen
monetary policy.

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Drops to Record Low as Unemployment Increases Consumer confidence sank to the
lowest level in at least 41 years this month as Americans grew
more concerned about keeping their jobs and paying their
mortgages, raising the risk they’ll spend less next year.

U.K. House Prices Were Most Affordable in Five Years in 2008, HBOS Says U.K. houses are now the most
affordable in more than five years, helping those looking to buy
a home for the first time, HBOS Plc said.

Vietnam's 2008 Economic Growth Slows to 6.2% as Building, Tourism Stumble Vietnam’s economy expanded at the
slowest pace since 1999 as higher interest rates and lending
restrictions earlier this year damped construction and a global
recession hurt tourism.

Indian Economy Succumbs to Global Recession After Surviving Terror Attacks India’s economic growth, unscathed by
terrorist attacks in Mumbai last month, is slowing as the global
recession cuts demand for its exports and cools investment.

Australian Retailers May Have Record Post-Christmas Sales, Group Predicts Australian retailers may have record
post-Christmas sales as lower borrowing costs and government
stimulus packages spur consumer demand, according to the
industry’s peak representative body.

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Dropped 18% From Year Ago, Case-Shiller Says Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities
declined at the fastest rate on record, depressed by mounting
foreclosures and slumping sales.

`Original Sin' Returns to Emerging Markets Requiring Sales of Dollar Bonds Developing nations plan to sell the
most dollar-denominated bonds since 2005, reversing a shift into
local debt, as commodities prices fall, foreign reserves diminish
and emerging-market currencies weaken.

Morning Economic News - December 30, 2008

Commentary and Overnight Trading

US stock market indexes are up just under 1% in overnight trading [4:30 AM Eastern] after the Treasury Department announced a $5 billion preferred stock investment in GMAC after the market close Monday. The Nikkei rose 1.28%, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.91% and the Hang Seng fell 0.65%, Oil futures are down 1.4% after the WTI spot price rose 24% Monday. The dollar has gained a half percent against the yen and the Canadian dollar and fallen against the euro and the pound.

Monday's Economic News

Money Supply - December 29, 2008

• M1 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $ 1522.6 billion


• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): $157.6 billion


• M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): $570.3 billion

What I'm Reading

GMAC Gets $5 Billion Investment From Treasury to Help Revive Auto Lending The U.S. Treasury committed $6
billion to support GMAC LLC, the financing arm of General Motors
Corp., widening the government's effort to keep the largest U.S.
automaker out of bankruptcy.

European Retail Sales Drop for Seventh Straight Month as Recession Deepens European retail sales fell for a
seventh month in a row in December as the deepening recession
curbed consumer confidence and spending, the Bloomberg
purchasing managers’ index showed.

Japan Economy May Shrink 12% This Quarter, Most Since 1974, Barclays Says Japan's economy will probably shrink
at an annual 12.1 percent pace this quarter, the sharpest drop
since 1974, as exports collapse, Barclays Capital said.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Probably Rose in December on Lower Gasoline Price U.S. consumer confidence probably
improved in December for a second month as falling gasoline
prices helped ease the strain on tattered household finances,
economists said before a report today.

South Korean Factory Output Falls By Record, Manufacturers Sentiment Drops South Korea’s factory production
fell by the most on record in November and confidence among
manufacturers tumbled, adding to signs the nation will join
Japan, Europe and the U.S. in recession.

South Korea Posts Current-Account Surplus, Easing Pressure on Currency South Korea posted a current-account
surplus for a second straight month in November, easing pressure
on the won, the region's worst-performing currency this year.

Thailand Posts Current-Account Deficit as Exports Decline Most Since 1992 Thailand posted a current-account
deficit in November for the fifth straight month as the global
economic slowdown cooled exports and a blockade of the country’s
main airports hurt tourism, the central bank said.

Loonie's Worst Year May Extend Into '09 as Canada Reels From Oil Collapse Canada’s currency may extend its
biggest annual decline on record, as tumbling crude prices hobble
foreign investment in the country’s oil patch, according to the
world’s biggest strategists and economists.

Toyota, Honda May Scrap `Just-in-Time' Inventory as `Supplier Shock' Looms Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda
Motor Co., Japan’s two largest carmakers, may modify
their so-called “just-in-time” manufacturing system to
avoid possible supplier bankruptcies disrupting production.

IMF Backs Obama Stimulus Plan

The IMF's top economist endorsed Obama's approach to
economic stimulus and urged countries to consider offering a kind of
"recession insurance."

GOP Warns Against Overspending on Stimulus

Republican lawmakers are positioning themselves as foes of
excessive spending as they prepare for battle over Obama's stimulus
package.

Morning Economic News - December 29, 2008

Commentary and Overnight Trading

Even trouble in the Middle East hasn't managed to move oil back above the $40 mark yet [2:30 AM Eastern]. And though a $1.31 increase has it well within striking distance of that mark, the increase can be accounted for almost entirely by a drop in the dollar - down against the yen, euro, pound and Canadian dollar. US stock market index futures are down about a half-percent, while Asian markets are up slightly.

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead December 29, 2008 to January 2, 2009

This week will give investors another breather of sorts with overflow
from last week's holidays starting off the week when the Fed reports on
money supply Monday. This statistic had become so boring, and so little
consulted, a few years ago that the Fed moved to a leaner version. The
theory at the time was that what was important to watch for monetary
policy was the federal funds rate. Now the Fed has slashed that rate
about as low as possible and is directly inflating the money supply as
a major policy tool. The numbers are getting very interesting and they
are pointing in a very familiar direction – another bubble is in the
works.

Economic News

Durable Goods Orders - November 2008

• New Orders: $186.9 billion


• New Orders Change: Down 1%


• Nondefense Capital Goods Change: Down 0.8%

Jobless Claims - December 24, 2008

• Initial Claims: 586,000


• Change from Last Week: Up 30,000

Personal Income and Outlays - November 2008

• Personal Income: Down $20.7 billion


• Monthly Change: Down 0.2%


• Real Disposable Personal Income: Up 1%

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - December 24, 2008

• Market Composite Index: 1245.4


• Change: Up 48%


• Purchase Index: 316.5


• Change: Up 10.6%

Interest rates at 37-year low

Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association are both reporting
30-year rates near 5% and 15-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) rates below
5% for a second week. Buyers have responded aggressively to the lower
rates, with mortgage applications for home purchases up more than 10%
last week.

What I'm Reading

Paulson's Progress With China Evaporates as Recession Reopens Trade Rifts The global recession is re-exposing
fissures in U.S.-China relations that Treasury Secretary Henry
Paulson spent more than two years smoothing over.

U.S. Retailers Face Store Closings, Bankruptcies as Holiday Sales Slump U.S. retailers face a wave of store
closings, bankruptcies and takeovers starting next month as
holiday sales are shaping up to be the worst in 40 years.

London House Prices Led Declines Across U.K. in 2008 and May Fall Further London house prices fell more than
in any other U.K. region this year and probably will decline
further in 2009 as the economy sinks deeper into a recession,
Hometrack Ltd. said.

South Korea Consumer Confidence Falls to 10-Year Low as Unemployment Rises South Korea’s consumer confidence
fell to the lowest level since the Asian financial crisis a
decade ago on concern faltering economic growth will lead to
further job cuts and falling incomes.

Japan Economy May Shrink 6.5% This Quarter, Bank of America's Fujii Says Japan’s economy may shrink at an
annual 6.5 percent pace this quarter, Bank of America Corp. said
after reports last week showed industrial production and exports
posted the biggest declines on record.

Israel May Cut Key Interest Rate Half-Point to Record 2% as Growth Weakens The Bank of Israel will probably
lower its benchmark lending rate tomorrow to a record as
Governor Stanley Fischer seeks to shore up flagging economic
growth, a survey showed.

U.S. Manufacturing Probably Shrank Most Since 1980 as Global Demand Slid Manufacturing in the U.S. probably
shrank at the fastest pace since 1980 as the deepening global
recession forced customers in North America, Europe and Asia to
cut back, economists said before reports this week.

Democrats May Add Municipal-Bond Tax Break to Sweeten Obama Stimulus Plan Congressional Democrats are seeking
to expand funding for airport runways, housing projects and
sewage-treatment plants though a new tax break for municipal
bondholders.

Biggest Bond Investors Look for European Rally in 2009 as ECB Follows Fed The world’s biggest bond investors
are betting European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet
will be forced to follow Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S.
Bernanke and step up the pace of interest-rate cuts.

Iceland's Fall: The Isle That Rattled the World

Iceland is an extreme casualty of an era in which it was
easy to borrow money. The tiny isle became so leveraged that its
collapse has rattled the world.

Morning Economic News - December 24, 2008

Commentary and Overnight Trading

Tuesday the stock market shrugged off a megadose of bad news that would have easily made for a 500 point drop in the Dow in September or October with a relatively small 1% drop. Both major housing sales indicators fell significantly in November. Part of the reason may be just how far the market has already fallen and that's reflected in another number that came out Tuesday: The State Street Investor Confidence Index. The Index, which measures the ratio of institutional investments in equity versus (theoretically less risky) debt securities fell by 1/3, indicating a huge shift out of stocks over the last month.

Markets trading overnight seem little thrilled or scared by the days news either, with US stock market futures up two-tenths of a percent, oil down 0.15% and Asian stock markets mixed with the biggest move a 2.37% drop in the Nikkei. The dollar is down against the yen, euro, pound and Canadian dollar. [3:14 AM EAstern]

Tuesday's Economic News

State Street Investor Confidence Index - December 2008

• Global Index: 48.0


• Monthly Change: Down 6.5


• Year-to-year Change: Down 17.9


• North America Index: 30.1


• Monthly Change: Down 15.2

Existing Home Sales - November 2008

• Total Existing Home Sales Annual Rate: 4.49 million


• Monthly Change: Down 8.6%


• Year-to-year Change: Down 10.6%

New Home Sales - November 2008

• Annual Sales Rate (Seasonally Adjusted): 407,000


• Monthly Change: Down 2.9%


• Annual Change: Down 35.3%

German Leading Index Down 2.6%

• Leading Index: Up 0.1%


• Coincident Index: Up 0.3%

What I'm Reading

Recession Compounds Housing Woes

A deepening recession and tight credit conditions are
compounding problems in the housing market, suggesting that declines in
home prices may continue well into 2009.

Japan Manufacturers' Confidence Slumps as Recession Deepens, Survey Shows Confidence among Japanese
manufacturers fell the most on record as exports collapsed,
signaling the recession will extend into 2009.

Thailand to Lift Spending as Government Predicts First Recession in Decade Thailand’s new government plans to
increase spending and tax breaks to stimulate domestic demand as
it forecast the economy will slip into its first recession in
almost a decade.

Philippine Imports Fall for First Time in 17 Months on Electronics Orders Philippine imports fell for the
first time in 17 months as demand waned for raw materials used
by electronics exporters amid a global recession.

U.S. Housing Prices Collapse at Near-Depression Pace After Purchases Slide Sales of single-family houses in the
U.S. dropped in November by the most in two decades and resale
prices collapsed at a pace reminiscent of the Great Depression,
dashing speculation the market was close to a bottom.

U.S. Economy Contracted 0.5% in Third Quarter as Recession Began to Deepen The U.S. economy shrank in the third
quarter at a 0.5 percent annual pace as the now year-old
recession intensified.

U.K. Economy Shrank Most Since 1990 in Third Quarter, Exceeding Estimates The U.K. economy shrank the most
since 1990 in the third quarter and mortgage lending dropped to
the lowest in 14 years as tightening credit exacerbated the
slide into recession.

China Stocks Lure BlackRock With `Mother' of Stimulus Plans as Mobius Buys The biggest investors in emerging
markets say China is the best choice for 2009, betting plans to
stimulate growth will lead a stock market recovery in the fastest
growing major economy.

Australian Funding Costs Decline for a Fourth Day on Central Bank Actions Australian funding costs fell for a
fourth day on speculation central banks worldwide will add to
cuts in borrowing costs that led to near-zero interest rates in
the U.S. and Japan.

Philippine Peso, Stocks Drop in Year on Signs Global Slump Hurting Exports The Philippine peso headed for its
worst year since 2000 and stocks had their biggest annual loss
in at least two decades on signs the global slowdown is hurting
sales of the nation’s exports.

US, UK housing slump deepens; Japan boosts spending

Morning Economic News - December 23, 2008

Commentary and Overnight Trading

The Hang Seng Index is down more than 3% and the S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.73%, US stock market futures are mixed with DJIA futures down slightly, S&P500 up slightly and NASDAQ down slightly. NYMEX Crude Oil futures are down more than 1% on reports that Chinese oil production will rise 1.2%. This news after the US Energy Information Administration last week reported that three new US platforms coming online next year will produce nearly as much oil as the state of California. The dollar is up less than a tenth of a percent against the yen and the Canadian dollar and down against the euro and the pound. [3:29 AM Eastern]

Monday's Economic Numbers

Australian Leading Index fell for second month

• Leading Index: Down 0.5%


• Coincident Index: Up 0.2%

Mexican Leading Index dropped more than 5% in October

• Leading Index: Down 5.7%


• Coincident: Down 0.2%

What I'm Reading

Foreclosure Mitigation Makes Little Headway

Intensified efforts by mortgage servicers to help borrowers
stay in their homes failed to stem the growing number of foreclosures
in the third quarter.

Saudi Arabia to Boost Spending

Saudi Arabia plans to ramp up government spending next year
and incur its first budget deficit in six years to keep its economy
growing.

France's Consumer Spending Unexpectedly Rebounds as Energy Prices Decline French consumer spending unexpectedly
rebounded in November as stimulus measures and declining energy
prices cushioned the impact of the deteriorating economic
environment.

China Steps to Increase Consumer Spending May Follow Latest Rate Reduction China may follow its latest interest-
rate cut with steps to spur consumer spending as deepening
recessions in the U.S. and Europe pummel exports, one of the main
engines of the world's fourth-largest economy.

New Zealand Economy Shrinks 0.4% as Recession Deepens on Spending, Exports New Zealand’s economy contracted for
the third straight quarter, extending the nation’s first
recession in 10 years and adding to the prospect the central
bank will cut interest rates to a record low next month.

Frozen Ports From Long Beach to Singapore Presage Bleak Trade Into 2010 Chris Lytle, chief operating officer
of the port of Long Beach, California, took in a panorama of the
slumping world economy from his rooftop observation deck one day
this month.

Chile's Copper Windfall Props Up Spending While Ecuador Defaults on Bonds Chilean homemaker Majorie Rojo shrugs
when asked about the crash in the price of copper, the engine of
her nation’s economy.

Won, Rupee, Asia's Biggest Losers, Will Shine in 2009, Moody's Unit Says South Korea’s won and India’s rupee,
Asia’s biggest losers this year, will be the region’s biggest
gainers from improved appetite for emerging-market assets and a
recovery in the global economy, said Moody’s Economy.com.

Thailand's New Government May Increase Stimulus Spending by 80%, Korn Says Thailand's new government may
increase spending by 80 percent to spur an economy hurt by the
global recession and domestic political strife, Finance Minister
Korn Chatikavanij said.

World economies slide into recession

Dec 23 (Reuters) - New Zealand's economy contracted by its
biggest amount in eight years, third quarter data showed on
Tuesday, reinforcing expectations that its recession will not
lift until well into 2009

Asian shares ignore China cut

Dec 23 - Asia stock markets retreated for a
third straight day on Tuesday as more investors locked in profits on
the year-end rally and prepared to close their books ignoring a rate
cut by china. 

Morning Economic News - December 22, 2008

Commentary and Overnight Trading

US stock market futures are up about 3/4 percent in early overnight trading [1 AM Eastern], the Nikkei is up 1.57%, the Hang Seng is down 1.67% and the S&P/ASX 200 down 1.61%. The NYMEX crude oil future is up 1.75%, with the February future trading almost $10 above Friday's spot price close (but still below $45/barrel). The dollar is up against the yen, pound and Canadian dollar. It's down against the euro, in spite of Barclays and UBS predicting a 10% drop in the euro in the next three months.

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead December 22 to 26, 2008

Investors will find lots of information packed into the holiday
shortened week and it's even more packed with no major indicators due
out until Tuesday. The first numbers due out are the Commerce
Department's final 3rd quarter GDP and corporate crofits figures with a
0.5% drop in GDP expected. Aside from corporate profits, Tuesday will
have one other big corporate oriented figure – the State Street
Investor Confidence Index. This index, which measures the actual risk
taking behavior of institutional portfolios, could help indicate if the
market has actually bottomed or if we are in a sustained bear market
rally – if the big boys are starting to move out of debt securities
back into equities, it's a good sign.

What I'm Reading

Euro Will Fall 10% Versus Dollar in 3 Months, UBS, Barclays Say

Trade-Finance Pinch Hurts the Healthy

The global financial crisis is drying up financing that
firms depend on for trade, making the recession deeper than it
otherwise would be.

Paulson Wants Rest of TARP Funds

The U.S. rescue of the auto industry drained what remained
in the first half of Treasury's $700 billion bailout fund, prompting
Paulson to call on Congress to release the rest of the money.

Aid to Homeowners May Double Next Year Under Bush-Backed Mortgage Program The mortgage-industry effort to stem
foreclosures aims to double the number of borrowers getting help
next year, as Democrats call for using taxpayer money to address
the crisis.

Japanese Exports Plunge Record 27% as Economy Sinks Further Into Recession Japan’s exports plunged the most on
record in November as global demand for cars and electronics
collapsed, signaling more factory shutdowns and job cuts are
likely as the recession deepens.

New Zealand's Recession Probably Deepened, Signaling More Rate Cuts Needed New Zealand’s recession probably
extended into a third quarter as consumers and businesses reined
in spending and exports of milk, timber and wool eased.

Japan Lowers Its Economic Assessment for Third Month as Recession Deepens The Japanese government lowered its
assessment of the economy for a third month, describing
conditions as the most severe since 2002.

Recession-Strapped U.S. Christmas Shoppers Search for Bargains, Discounts Cash-strapped shoppers are searching
for bargains in the final days before Christmas and some are
limiting their gift-giving to children in what could be a make-
or-break weekend for U.S. retailers.

Treasury Bond Bubble Sucks up Investors Who Can't Say No to Lowest Yields The world’s biggest bond investors
can’t stop buying Treasuries even though they’re comparing
government debt to Internet stocks just before the technology
bubble burst.

Oligarchs Seek $78 Billion Loans as Credit-Market Squeeze Empowers Putin Russian oligarchs are lining up for
$78 billion of Kremlin loans to survive the credit squeeze,
handing Prime Minister Vladimir Putin the opportunity to increase
government control of the nation’s biggest companies.

Japan exports collapse as yen, world recession bite

China FX reserves fall in Oct, first time since '03

Japan recession deepens, Ireland bails out banks

Morning Economic News - December 19, 2008

Commentary and Overnight Trading

The Bank of Japan returned to a near Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) that it had only abandoned in the last couple of years, after the Fed's ZIRP announcement Tuesday, and announced that it will buy corporate debt to inject money into businesses. The European Central Bank announced it was cutting interest it pays on deposits in the hope of spurring banks to loan to each other rather than deposit excess reserves. Central banks and governments worldwide are matching the US Federal Reserve move for move in easing monetary policy, which should help support the dollar. On the other hand, with increasing good signs in credit markets and liquidations wringing some of the riskiest excesses from financial markets, investors are not flocking to the dollar as a stable haven. The flight to quality is reversing - bad news for US citizens traveling overseas, but good news for US exporters.

Asian stocks are down in early overnight trading (1:30 AM Eastern) driven partly by drops in commodity stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 is up 0.96%, while the Hang Seng and Nikkei are each down less than 1%. US stock market futures are down less than 1% as well. Crude oil has recovered 0.6% after dropping nearly 10% Thursday. The dollar is down against many currencies, including the yen, euro and pound, but is up against the Canadian dollar and several Asian currencies. ;

Thursday's Economic News

Mortgage rates below 5%

The Mortgage Bankers Association and Freddie Mac both reported good
news for those needing to refinance mortgages and those with resetting
ARMs with the MBAA reporting an average 15-year Fixed Rate Mortgage
(FRM) rate below 5% and Freddie Mac reporting a 1-year ARM rate below
5% and 15-year FRM rates below 5%. Even 30-year FRM rates are flirting
with 5% according to both reports.

Jobless Claims - December 18, 2008

• Initial Claims: 554,000


• Change from Last Week: Down 21,000


• 4-Week Moving Average: 543,750

Money Supply - December 18, 2008

• M1 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $1525.0 billion


• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $160 billion

Leading Index (US) - November 2008

• Leading Index: Down 0.4%


• Coincident Index: Down 0.3%


• Lagging Index: Up 0.1%

What I'm Reading

Bank of Japan Cuts Interest Rate

The Bank of Japan became the latest central bank to cut rates to rock-bottom levels, reducing the benchmark rate to 0.1%.

ECB Moves to Foster Interbank Lending

The ECB widened its interest-rate corridor and cut the return it gives
banks for holding cash with it as it seeks to prod interbank money
markets back to normality.

RBS slashes China '09 GDP growth forecast to 5 pct 

BEIJING, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Royal Bank of Scotland on Friday
slashed its forecast for China's 2009 gross domestic product
growth to 5 percent, from 8 percent, warning about the potential
for increasing social tensions as the economy falters.

Mexico to cut import tariffs to support industry

Bank of Japan Cuts Benchmark Rate to 0.1%, to Start Buying Corporate Debt The Bank of Japan cut its benchmark
interest rate to 0.1 percent and said it would buy corporate
debt as a deepening recession chokes off funding for businesses.

ECB's Trichet Says Deposit-Rate Cut May Help Revive Money-Market Lending European Central Bank President
Jean-Claude Trichet said financial companies may begin lending
more to each other after policy makers made it less attractive
to turn to them for support.

Japan Says Economy Won't Grow in Fiscal 2009 as Global Recession Deepens Japan’s government slashed its
economic growth forecast for next fiscal year as the global
slowdown prompts companies to cut business investment.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index Falls 0.4% as Outlook Deteriorates A gauge of the economy’s future
performance posted its biggest annual drop since 1991 in November
as the declines in housing and job markets accelerated, showing
little sign the U.S. contraction will ease in early 2009.

Paulson May Ask Congress to Release Next $350 Billion in Bank-Rescue Funds Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson may
ask Congress for the second half of the $700 billion bank rescue
program, concerned that the deepening recession may spark
further financial turmoil.

Harvard Economist Feldstein Says Recovery Won't Start for Another Year The U.S. economy likely won’t start
recovering from a recession for at least another year, making
this the longest downturn since the 1930s, said Harvard
University economist Martin Feldstein, a member of the
committee that charts American business cycles.

Greenspan Says Financial Markets Are Likely to Rebound in 6 to 12 Months Financial markets, which have been
depressed by “fear” not seen since at least the 1930s, are
likely to rebound in the next six to 12 months, former Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a commentary published
by The Economist online.

Philippines Posts Third Straight Monthly Budget Deficit on State Spending The Philippine government posted its
third straight monthly budget deficit in November as it boosted
spending to counter the global recession.

World Economy to Contract for First Time in Almost 50 Years, Bankers Say The world economy will contract next
year for the first time in almost 50 years, as industrial
nations are wracked by recession, and growth in emerging markets
is cut almost in half, a banking industry group said.