Morning Economic News - November 6, 2008

Asian markets are down 4 to 6% and US stock market futures are down just under 1% Thursday [1:51 AM Eastern] after Wednesday's 5% loss on Wall Street. NYMEX crude oil futures are down 0.9% and Brent Crude spot prices are down 2%. The dollar is down slightly against the yen and up against the euro, pound and Canadian dollar.

Mortgage applications dropped as rates spiked last week

New applications for home purchase mortgages dropped 13.9% and
refinance applications dropped 27.8% last week as 30-year and 15-year
Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) rates increased according to the Weekly
Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The
1-year Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) rate fell slightly, but points
paid on 1-year ARMs doubled and the interest rate remained nearly half
a percent higher than the 30-year FRM rate.

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - November 5, 2008

• Market Composite Index: 379.9


• Change: Down 20.3%


• Purchase Index: 260.9


• Change: Down 13.9%

ADP Employment Report - October 2008

• Total Nonfarm Private Employment: 115,798,000


• Monthly Change: Down 157,000

Nonmanufacturing Report on Business - October 2008

• NMI/PMI: 44.4


• Reading above 50 represents growing activity


• Change: Down 5.8

UK recession looking worse

These numbers solidify the case for the expected Thursday drop in the
bank rate by the Bank of England and point to even more rocky times for
the pound and for foreign investment in the UK.

Credit crunch could hurt oil exploration, boost prices as economy recovers

US crude oil and propane/propylene inventories were unchanged last
week, but inventories of gasoline and distillate fuels pushed total
commercial petroleum inventories up more than 5 million barrels.
Gasoline demand has perked up a little since prices began to fall, but
remains more than 2% below year ago levels and jet fuel demand is down
more than 15% compared to the same period in 2007.

U.S. Explores Its Options With TARP

Treasury reported it is exploring additional ways to apply the $700 billion financial-rescue package.

New Debt Could Hamstring Obama

U.S. borrowing in coming months will be at record levels, and could constrain President-elect Obama's economic agenda.

German Cabinet Clears Stimulus Plan

Germany's cabinet approved measures to boost the economy
that will cost the country's public finances about $29.9 billion over
four years.

Australian Jobs Unexpecteldy Surge on Interest-Rate Cuts, Cash Handouts Australian employment unexpectedly
surged in October by the most in six months, a sign lower
interest rates, government handouts and exports may help the
economy sidestep a global recession.

ECB May Cut Rate Again as Worst Slump in 15 Years Spurs `Radical Action' The European Central Bank will cut
interest rates for the second time in less than a month today as
the region's economy suffers its worst slump in 15 years,
economists said.

Japan Recession May Be Shallower Than U.S., Cabinet Office Economist Says Japan's recession will be shallower
than the U.S. and Europe because damage from the global credit
crisis has been limited, the Cabinet Office's top economist said.

King May be Forced Toward Zero Rate Policy as Economy Heads for Recession Bank of England Governor Mervyn King
may have to consider the most radical round of interest-rate
cuts since World War II as the financial crisis tears through
Britain's economy.

Japan Sept coincident indicator index +0.1 point m/m

Mexico's Walmex Oct same-store sales up 2.0 pct

Mexico Oct consumer confidence dives to record low

Morning Economic News - November 5, 2008

Talk about total calm. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1 point in Asian trading at 2:01 AM Eastern Time, nearly 4 hours after John McCain conceded the election to Barack Obama. The dollar is up against the euro (1.05%) and pound (0.8%) as well as the Canadian dollar (0.76%) and down slightly against the yen (0.28%). Oil is down 2% after rising 10% Tuesday. The S&P/ASX200, Hang Seng and Nikkei stock market averages are all up 2.8% to 4.46%.

Factory Orders - September 2008

• New Orders: $432.0 billion


• Monthly Change: Down 2.5%


• Inventories: $558.7 billion


• Monthly Change: Down 0.7%

Danes Seek Vote on Adopting Euro

Denmark's government plans to push for a vote on whether to
adopt the euro, showing how the financial crisis has begun to change
views on the currency.

Luxury Consumers Scrimp

Many affluent Americans are developing a distaste for
extravagance amid the economic downturn and rising concern about the
environment.

Asian Central Banks to Slash Rates to Fight Global Slump, Swap Trades Show Asian central banks will lower
borrowing costs further to cushion the region's economies from
the global slump, trading in interest-rate swaps shows.

Australia Cuts Budget Surplus, Growth Estimates Amid Credit-Market Turmoil Australia's government slashed its
forecast budget surplus by 75 percent, saying the slowest
economic growth in eight years and fallout from the global
financial crisis will erode tax revenue.

Merkel's Cabinet Meets to Decide on $65 Billion Economic Stimulus Package German Chancellor Angela Merkel's
Cabinet meets in Berlin today to agree on a ``bold'' package of
measures aimed at shoring up the economy amid a global slowdown.

South Korea Is Determined to `Resuscitate' Economy, Ruling Party Head Says South Korea's government is
determined to ``resuscitate'' the economy by frontloading
stimulus spending in the first few months of 2009, said ruling
Grand National Party Chairman Park Hee Tae.

Bank of Japan Focusing on Risk That Slowdown Will Deepen, Shirakawa Says The Bank of Japan needs to focus on
the possibility that the economy will deteriorate further because
of lingering global financial turmoil, Governor Masaaki Shirakawa
said.

World Bank trims growth outlook for Latin America

Global recession has begun: John Kemp

U.S. factory orders tumble again

Morning Economic News - November 4, 2008

Things are shaping up for another fairly lackluster day on Wall Street as the nation and the world waits to see the outcome of the US Presidential and Congressional elections. In Asian trading, the Nikkei is up more than 6% after no trading Monday, the Hang Seng is up 0.28% and the S&P/ASX200 is down 0.15%. US stock market futures are up less than a percent and the dollar is mixed, up against the pound and the Canadian dollar, down against the yen and euro. Oil prices are down more than 2%. [4:38 AM Eastern]

Construction Spending - September 2008

• Total Construction Spending: $1,060.1 billion billion


• Monthly Change: Down 0.3%


• Year-to-year Change: Down 6.6%

Manufacturing Report on Business - October 2008

• Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): 38.9


• 50+ represents growing economic conditions


• Monthly Change: down 4.6

Bank Clampdown Dogs Economy

Banks continue to tighten lending terms for the nation's consumers and
businesses, hamstringing the economy and raising the risk of a
protracted recession.

EU: Euro-Zone Economy Is in Recession

Financial turmoil tipped the euro-zone economy into recession, according to new
forecasts that prompted calls for a coordinated fiscal boost across the
bloc.

Treasury Projects Record Borrowing

The Treasury estimated it will borrow a record $550 billion in marketable
debt in the fourth quarter to pay for emergency programs aimed at
easing the credit crunch.

Australia Central Bank Lowers Interest Rate Larger-Than-Expected 75 Points Australia's central bank cut its
benchmark interest rate by a larger-than-expected three quarters
of a percentage point, the third reduction in as many months,
amid evidence global financial turmoil is buffeting the economy.

Worst Stock, Bond Markets in Three Decades Hang Over Presidential Election U.S. voters are heading to the polls
with stock and bond markets mired in the worst slump in three
decades.

EU Finance Ministers Rule Out Joint Stimulus, Back `Coordinated' Policies European finance ministers ruled out
a joint stimulus package to revive the region's economy and
vowed instead to coordinate national policies as they try to
limit the fallout from a recession on consumers and companies.

Banks Tighten Lending Standards by a Record as U.S. Economic Outlook Dims A record share of U.S. banks made it
harder for companies to get loans in the past three months,
concerned about mounting losses from the economic slump and
financial crisis, a Federal Reserve report showed today.

Japan's Wages Grow 0.1%, Signaling Consumer Spending Won't Support Economy Japan's wages grew 0.1 percent for a
second month, signaling that consumer spending is unlikely to
provide impetus for the slowing economy.

Morning Economic News - November 3, 2008

The first day of November and the last day before the Presidential election could be a relatively calm one on Wall Street. US stock market futures are up moderately in overnight trading, with S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures all up just over 1% [2:30 AM Eastern Time]. The Hang Seng is up 3.5% and the S&P/ASX 200 is up 5%. The dollar is up against the yen, euro and pound, but down against the Canadian dollar. Oil prices are up just over 1%. With credit markets freeing up and recapitalized US banks taking private steps to avoid foreclosures on problem subprime mortgages, there's plenty of news to calm markets; there's also potential for trouble with the ISM Manufacturing Report on Business due out Monday and earnings reports from MasterCard and the PMI Group, two companies intimately tied to the credit and mortgage markets.

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead November 3 to 7, 2008

The week opens up with two days of news from the industrial economy and
then heads into three days of employment data leading up to Friday
morning's Labor Department Employment Situation Report. Friday will be
a big day overall with news from housing and credit markets as well as
the jobs report.

Personal Income and Spending - September 2008

• Personal Income: $12,251.2 billion


• Monthly Change: Up 0.2%


• Real Disposable Personal Income: Up 0.1%

J.P. Morgan in Huge Effort to Save Mortgages

J.P. Morgan launched an ambitious plan to modify the terms
of $70 billion in mortgages for borrowers who are behind on their
payments or soon could be. The move will cover as many as 400,000
borrowers.

South Korea Plans Stimulus

South Korea proposed a fiscal stimulus plan of tax cuts and new government spending amounting to about $11 billion.

Dodging another Great Depression

WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - Starbucks is starting to sell more coffee. Companies are
once again finding buyers for their short-term debt. Money is beginning
to flow back into emerging markets.

Trichet Extends ECB's Power, May Cut Rates at Fastest Pace in Its History Jean-Claude Trichet is extending the
European Central Bank's powers just as it gears up for what may
be the fastest round of interest-rate cuts in its 10-year
history.

South Korea Unveils $10.8 Billion of Spending, Tax Breaks to Boost Economy South Korea plans to a 14 trillion
won ($10.8 billion) boost to the economy next year as the nation
tackles the biggest crisis since it needed an International
Monetary Fund bailout a decade ago.

Chinese Manufacturing Shrinks by Record as Exports Wane, Two Surveys Show China's manufacturing contracted by
the most on record last month as the global financial crisis cut
demand for exports, a second survey showed.

India, China Increase Efforts to Cushion Their Economies From Global Slump India and China are accelerating
efforts to prop up growth as a global slump threatens the
world's fastest-expanding major economies.

Bernanke Push for Lower Bank Borrowing Costs Drives Treasury Yields Higher Even as Ben S. Bernanke cuts
borrowing costs to 50-year lows, taxpayers will likely be paying
ever increasing interest rates on U.S. debt.

Morning Economic News - October 31, 2008

US stock futures are down about 1.5% in overnight trading steering a middle course between a steep 5% decline in the Nikkei average, a 3.96% drop in the Hang Seng and a slight increase in the S&P/ASX 200. Oil prices are down 2.8% and the dollar is down 2% against the yen and up 1.6% against the euro and the pound - the same pattern that has held before several down days for US stocks the last few weeks. [Data as of 3:41 AM Eastern Time]

Money Supply (M1 and M2) - October 30, 2008

• M1 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $1453.9 billion


• M1 4-Week Average: $1471.6 billion


• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): $84.7 billion

Jobless Claims - October 30, 2008

• Initial Claims: 479,000


• Change from Last Week: Unchanged

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - 3rd Quarter 2008

• Real Annual Growth Rate: down 0.3%


• Previous Quarter Rate: up 2.8%


• Current Dollar GDP Growth: Up 3.8%

Data Stoke Campaign Battle Over Economy

The U.S. economy contracted in the third quarter, setting
the stage for a deepening recession and handing Democrats a new
political weapon in the days before Tuesday's presidential election.

German Government Plans Stimulus

Merkel is working on a $32 billion fiscal stimulus program
aimed at softening the slowdown without wrecking efforts to rein in
Germany's budget deficits.

Bank of Japan Cuts Interest Rates to 0.3%; Shirakawa Casts Deciding Vote The Bank of Japan cut its benchmark
interest rate to 0.3 percent in a split decision to help stave
off a prolonged recession.

Japan Inflation Slows, Job Prospects Worsen, Supporting Case for Rate Cuts Japan's inflation slowed in
September and employment prospects worsened, giving the central
bank more scope to cut interest rates.

Treasuries Rise as Economic Contraction Spurs Bets for a Further Rate Cut Treasuries rose, with 10-year notes
snapping a four-day slide, on speculation the Federal Reserve
will cut interest rates in December for a seventh time this year
to revive the shrinking U.S. economy.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Probably Fell in September as Job Losses Climbed Spending by U.S. consumers probably
dropped in September, capping its weakest quarter in three
decades and signaling the economy will continue to slump in
coming months, economists said before a report today.

U.K. Consumer Confidence Drops Close to Lowest Level Since at Least 1974 U.K. consumer confidence dropped in
October close to the weakest level since at least 1974 as the
financial crisis spooked British shoppers, GfK NOP said.

Economy contracts as consumers retreat

WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - The U.S. economy suffered its sharpest contraction in seven
years in the third quarter as consumers cut spending and businesses
reduced investment at the onset of what may be a severe and
long-lasting recession.

Who shrank the economy? Food prices dent U.S. growth

Morning Economic News - October 30, 2008

We may get a few more hours out of the rally on Wall Street Thursday, despite expected bad news in the GDP report. In overnight trading oil prices are up more than 4%, the Nikkei average is up more than 9%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 is up more than 4% and US stock market futures are up about 3.5% [2:30 AM Eastern]. The dollar is down against all the major currencies except the yen, reversing the trend we've seen on the worst days of the financial panic.

Federal Funds Rate (FOMC) - October 29, 2008

Federal Funds Rate: 1%

Discount Rate: 1.25%

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - October 29, 2008

• Market Composite Index: 476.7


• Change: Up 16.8%


• Purchase Index: 303.1


• Change: Up 8.5%

Durable Goods Orders - September 2008

New Orders Change: Up 0.8%
Nondefense Capital Goods Change: Up 0.8%

Gas prices below year ago levels nationwide

Today's This Week in Petroleum from the Energy Information
Administration reported that gasoline prices are now lower than year
ago levels in all US regions. After six consecutive weeks of declines,
prices have fallen nearly 31% to a national average of $2.656 per
gallon. (Locally, gas prices have been under $2/gallon in southwest
Missouri for the last 5 days.) Gas prices may stabilize at this level
as gasoline inventories fell slightly and are again slightly below the
average range for the season when measured in barrels (but within the
average range in days of supply).

Housing market hits the trifecta

This is what we’ve been waiting several months for - real estate
markets hit the trifecta the last four days, with existing home sales,
new home sales and mortgage applications all increasing.

Australian economic growth continued in August

Australian economic indicators continued their July rebound
in August, with coincident indicators rising 0.1% and leading
indicators up 0.4%. This was the sixth consecutive month of increases
in the leading index and the strength was widespread among the various
indicators.

Fed Steps Up Assault on Slump

The Fed cut its benchmark rate by a half-point to 1%, the
lowest level since 2003-04 and a move accompanied by two other central
banks. Markets signaled that investors were continuing to shed the
caution of recent weeks.

Durable-Goods Orders Increase

Demand for expensive goods climbed 0.8% in September,
boosted by higher car and airplane orders for an unexpected increase
amid a weakening economy and a credit crunch.

Bernanke Signals Door `Open' for Cutting Rates to Lowest Level on Record Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S.
Bernanke signaled he's ready to cut interest rates to the lowest
level on record should the central bank's actions fail to stem
the deepening economic slump.

Taiwan Cuts Key Rate to 3% From 3.25%, Following Reductions by U.S., China Taiwan's central bank cut interest
rates for the third time in less than two months, after
counterparts in the U.S. and China lowered borrowing costs to
stem the damage from the global financial crisis.

U.S. Economy Likely Shrank in Quarter as Voters Turned Against Republicans The U.S. economy probably shrank in
the third quarter by the most since the 2001 recession just as
Americans were deciding how to cast their ballots in the Nov. 4
elections.

Bank of Japan May Be Obliged to Lower Rates After Investors Anticipate Cut The Bank of Japan may have little
choice but to cut interest rates tomorrow after a newspaper
report raised investors' expectations that it would.

Fed Offers $120 Billion to Emerging-Market Central Banks as Crisis Spreads The Federal Reserve agreed to provide
$30 billion each to the central banks of Brazil, Mexico, South
Korea and Singapore, expanding its effort to unfreeze money
markets to emerging nations for the first time.

China May Reduce Rates Again as Global Slump Hurts Exports, Manufacturing China may keep lowering interest
rates after three reductions in two months as the global
financial crisis drags down exports and production.

Asia markets signal tentative return of risk taking

BEIJING
(Reuters) - Asian share markets rallied and the euro surged on Thursday
on tentative signs that investors are rediscovering an appetite for
risk in response to global efforts to prevent the financial crisis from
leading to a deep recession.

ECB to cut rates, but by how much?

Economists
are now certain the European Central Bank will cut interest rates again
at its next meeting, the only question is how much. ECB chief
Jean-Claude Trichet's blunt hint that..

Morning Economic News - October 29, 2008

Tuesday, markets shrugged off the news that the Consumer Confidence Index had plunged to an all time low in September as it merely added fuel to the fire for a half point interest rate drop from the Fed Wednesday. Overnight, Asian markets are full steam ahead, though not up by the 10% plus that the Dow rose Tuesday. US markets are likely to give back some of the gains, with stock market futures down about 1% from the close at this writing [2 AM Eastern]. Oil prices are up slightly as the dollar has lost some value against the yen, euro and pound. Markets are working hard to find a bottom, but volatility is likely to be the rule of the day at least through the end of January, so trimming yesterday's gains should be no surprise, though the actual Fed announcement could move markets either direction depending on how the accompanying statement is interpreted.

Consumer Confidence Index - September 2008

• Consumer Confidence Index: 38


• Monthly Change: Down 23.4


• Present Situation Index: 41.9


• Monthly Change: Down 19.2

Economists Search for End of Woes

Economists struggling to gauge the depth of the U.S.
downturn are turning to more forward-looking clues, such as
home-vacancy rates and foreign stock markets.

Americans Still Buying in Europe

American investors continue to acquire more European properties than they sell, although sales are off sharply.

Fed May Cut Rate to 1% in `Very Aggressive' Response to Crumbling Economy The Federal Reserve may lower its
benchmark interest rate to 1 percent today and signal further
reductions to levels unseen since Dwight Eisenhower was
president.

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Cut Speculation Increases After Nikkei Report Speculation the Bank of Japan will
cut interest rates for the first time in seven years jumped
after the Nikkei newspaper reported that the central bank may
halve its target rate this week.

Home Prices Will Hurt U.S. Economic Growth More Than Stocks, Survey Shows Plunging home prices will cut economic
growth in the U.S. more than the drop in stock prices this year,
economists at the University of Southern California and the
University of California, Los Angeles, said.

Japan Small Business Confidence Falls to a Decade Low as Economy Stagnates Confidence among Japan's small and
midsized companies dropped to a decade low as a faltering
economy weighed on profits.

Fed Creates $15 Billion Swap Line With New Zealand to Ease Credit Squeeze The Federal Reserve authorized a $15
billion swap line with New Zealand's central bank to provide U.S.
dollars in the country, the 10th such currency-exchange program
aimed at easing the worldwide credit freeze.

Australia Faces First Recession Since '91 as Resources Drop, JPMorgan Says Australia faces its first recession
since 1991 as prices fall next year for iron ore and coal, the
nation's largest exports, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Fed poised to fight crisis with another rate cut

WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest
rates by at least a half-percentage point on Wednesday in yet another
move to turn around the credit crisis that is threatening the United
States with a deep and prolonged recession.