Economic News - September 4, 2008

Jobless Claims - September 4, 2008

• Initial Claims: 444,000


• Change from Last Week: Up 15,000

Money Supply - September 4, 2008

• M1 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $1401.0 billion


• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $33 billion


• M2 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $7725.9 billion


• M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): up $457.2 billion

Monster Employment Index - August 2008

• Index: 159


• Monthly Change: Up 2


• Year-to-year Change: Down 27 Points

Productivity and Costs - 2nd Quarter 2008

• Business Sector Productivity: Up 4.3%


• Nonfarm Business Productivity: Up 4.3%


• Manufacturing Productivity: Down 2.2%

Gustav hangover hasn't hit oil markets yet, strong dollar dominating the picture

The oil markets are breathing such a big sigh of relief from the US
Gulf production emerging relatively unscathed from Hurricane Gustav
that they are taking another down week for inventories in stride. The
strong dollar is also a factor the last several days. Gasoline
inventories also fell again, but the rate of decline has gotten back in
line with seasonal norms and gasoline is back into the low end of the
average range for this time of year.

Mortgage rates down across the board

Freddie Mac reported Thursday that 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM),
15-year FRM, 5-year hybrid Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) and 1-year
ARM rates all fell this week. Freddie Mac’s conforming 1-year ARM is
5.15% down 6/10 of a percent from this time last year and nearly 2%
below the non-conforming rate reported Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Central Banks focus on inflation, ignore economic weakness

Look for more strength in the US dollar as the European Central Bank,
Bank of England and Bank of Canada all left key interest rate targets
unchanged this week, choosing to focus on the threat of inflation and
ignore mounting evidence of recession.

Productivity Is Revised Higher

Productivity jumped 4.3% in the second quarter, higher than initially estimated,
while labor costs fell, reflecting a mix of employment declines and
export-generated growth.

Indonesia Raises Interest Rate

The key interest rate in Indonesia was raised a quarter point to 9.25%, predicting high inflation for the rest of the year.

Japan's Businesses Cut Spending 7.6% Last Quarter as Material Costs Surged

Japanese business investment fell
more than estimated in the second quarter as oil and commodity
prices surged to a record and the global slowdown damped demand
for the country's exports.

European Banks Face Higher Finance Costs as ECB Tightens Access to Capital

Banks in the U.K., Spain and Ireland
that have relied on the European Central Bank for low-cost funding
will have to pay more as it tightens lending rules.

U.S. Growth Is `Stagnant,' Europe Faces Recession, Conference Board Says The U.S. economy is ``stagnant'' and

Europe is falling into a recession, the Conference Board said
today, warning that central banks won't have much room to cut
borrowing costs amid elevated prices.

U.S. Probably Lost Jobs for an Eighth Month; Jobless Rate Forecast at 5.7% The U.S. probably lost jobs in

August for an eighth consecutive month, raising the risk that
growth will falter in the second half of the year, economists
said before a government report today.

Russia says further cuts Freddie, Fannie holding

SOCHI, Russia, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Russia has slightly
further reduced its holdings of U.S. mortgage agencies Freddie
Mac and Fannie Mae , central bank's first deputy
chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said on Friday.

Economic News - September 3, 2008

Federal Reserve Beige Book - September 3, 2008

• Commercial real estate activity was weak in 11 of the 12 districts.
  Dallas reported an increase in office leasing and public projects were
  buoying construction activity.


• Manufacturing activity was weak or declining in most Districts but improved in others.

Factory Orders - July 2008

• New Orders: $465.4 billion


• Monthly Change: Up 1.3%

Help Wanted Online Data Series - August 2008

• Online Advertised Vacancies: 4,833,700


• Monthly Change: Up 6.95 (Not seasonally adjusted)


• Year-to-year Change: Up 4%

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - September 3, 2008

• Market Composite Index: 453.1


• Change: Up 7.5%


• Purchase Index: 349.0


• Change: Up 10.5%

Mortgage Applications Up

If mortgage applications the last week are any indication, the housing
market is ready to stabilize, if not actually bounce back, in late
September and October. The Mortgage Banker’s Association reported a
10.5% increase (seasonally adjusted) in new applications for home
purchase mortgages last week.

Beige Book: Economy, Spending Slow

The Fed said economic conditions remain "slow" as consumers pull back and
focus on essentials, though exports continue to provide some boost to
the economy.

Factory Orders, Spending Rise

Factory orders climbed 1.3% during July, while a key barometer of business
spending -- nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft -- rose
2.5%.

Fed Beige Book Says Economy `Slow' in Most Regions as Price Pressures Rise

Business across most of the U.S. was
``slow'' last month, while almost all Federal Reserve districts
reported pressure to raise prices because of higher commodity
costs, the central bank said in its regional economic survey.

Australia's Trade Balance Unexpectedly Turns to Deficit as on Imported Oil

Australia's trade balance
unexpectedly turned to a deficit in July as oil imports surged
and exports fell.

ECB May Keep Rate at Seven-Year High as Inflation Trumps Risk of Recession

The European Central Bank will keep
interest rates at a seven-year high to fight inflation even as the
euro-region economy teeters on the brink of a recession, a survey
of economists shows.

South Korea to Proceed With Global Bond Sale as it Seeks Damp Crisis Talk

South Korea will start the sale of
$1 billion in global bonds next week and expects companies to
borrow a further $10 billion abroad by the end of the year as
the government seeks to quash speculation of a financial crisis.

BOE May Forgo Rate Cut as Inflation Limits King's Ability to Revive Growth

The Bank of England will keep its
benchmark interest rate unchanged today as the fastest inflation
in more than a decade makes it harder for policy makers to respond
to the risk of a recession, a survey of economists showed.

Foreign investors bought Japan stocks last week

GM August sales fall 20 percent amid incentives

Chrysler Aug U.S. vehicle sales off 34.5 pct

Volkswagen Aug U.S. vehicle sales up 2.9 pct

Nissan Aug U.S. vehicle sales up 13.6 pct

Ford Aug U.S. vehicle sales off 25.5 pct

Economic News - September 2, 2008

Manufacturing Report on Business - August 2008

• Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): 49.9


• 50+ represents growing economic conditions


• Monthly Change: down 0.1

Construction Spending - July 2008

• Total Construction Spending: $1,084.4billion


• Monthly Change: Down 0.6%


• Year-to-year Change: Down 4.8%

Some Dissent in Discount Minutes

Fed regional banks left the discount rate alone last month because their
policy achieved an "appropriate balance" between risks to the economy
and inflation. Some banks wanted to raise the rate.

Manufacturing Slows, But New Orders Rise

Manufacturing activity slowed last month but only slightly, and an increase in
exports and new orders shows that the sector remains a bright spot for
the struggling U.S. economy.

OECD Sees Slow Economic Growth

Developed economies will continue to grow slowly, if at all, for the remainder of
this year, the OECD said. The research group sees housing woes
spreading in Europe.

Australia Economic Growth Slows to Weakest Pace in Two Years on Consumers

Australia's economic expansion slowed in the second quarter to the weakest pace in two years as
consumers reduced spending, reinforcing the central bank's decision to cut interest rates for the first time since 2001.

U.K. Consumer Confidence Stays at Four-Year Low as Economic Growth Stalls

British consumer confidence held at the lowest level in at least four years in August after economic
growth stalled, Nationwide Building Society said.

Manufacturing in U.S. Falls First Time in Three Months as Investments Cut

A measure of U.S. manufacturing was little changed in August as gains in exports helped offset
falling domestic demand.

Consumer confidence up, still near historic low: survey

NEW YORK

(Reuters) - American consumers' confidence rose in the latest week on
the back of a better perception of the U.S. buying climate, but it is
still near its historic low, a survey showed on Tuesday.

Mexican e-commerce seen growing 70 percent in 2008 

MEXICO CITY, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Mexican firms will likely sell
70 percent more goods and services over the Internet this year,
mostly to people buying plane tickets and computers, experts
predicted on Tuesday. 

Economic News - August 29, 2008

Personal Income and Outlays - July 2008

Personal Income: Down $89.9 billion (0.7%)

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead September 2 to 5, 2008

After relatively strong housing reports and an impressive showing in
the 2nd quarter GDP report last week, Fed watchers will be on alert for
any signs that could point to rate increases – especially in
Wednesday's release of the Federal Reserve Beige Book.

The dollar is poised to make gains against other currencies as US
growth ramps up and other economies, especially Western Europe, slow.

Consumer Spending Slowed in July

Consumer spending rose 0.2% in July, but adjusted for inflation outlays dropped
0.4%, suggesting the economy will weaken with the end of government
stimulus payments.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Slowed in July as Prices Rose Most in 17 Years

U.S. consumer spending grew at a
slower pace in July as the impact of the tax rebates faded and a
pickup in inflation eroded Americans' buying power.

Business Activity Expands at the Fastest Pace in Year, Chicago Index Shows

A measure of U.S. business activity
showed expansion at the fastest pace in more than a year, as
production accelerated the most since October 2004.

European Confidence Drops More Than Forecast; Inflation Rate Falls to 3.8%

Europeans' confidence fell more
than forecast this month as the economy teetered on the brink
of a recession.

Darling Says U.K. Economic Slowdown Is Worst in 60 Years, Guardian Reports

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer
Alistair Darling said the British economy is facing the worst
slowdown in 60 years and will not recover as quickly as
originally forecast, the Guardian reported.

Consumer spending flags, but confidence rises

WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - Personal income tumbled unexpectedly in July and
inflation-adjusted spending shrank as government economic stimulus
waned, but consumer spirits rose this month, a hint the economy may
muddle through its woes.

Canada skirts recession in second quarter

OTTAWA, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Canada's economy narrowly
avoided a recession in the second quarter but the tepid 0.3
percent annual growth rate raised doubts about how long the
Bank of Canada could afford to keep interest rates on hold.

Economic News - August 28, 2008

Not quite a recession.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the 2nd quarter preliminary GDP estimate Thursday, showing a real growth rate of 3.3% annually in the second quarter. This is nearly double the already decent 1.9% growth rate reported in the advance estimate.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - 2nd Quarter 2008 Preliminary

Real Annual Growth Rate: 3.3%

Money Supply (M1 and M2) - August 28, 2008

M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $33 billion
M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): $457.1 billion

Jobless Claims - August 28, 2008

Change from Last Week: Down 10,000

Rates down, but may rise on good economic news

Freddie Mac chief economist attributed the drop in long term rates to
signs of weakness in economic indicators last week, but noted that
there were promising signs in housing markets

Dude, Where's My Recession?

Was it all about the government rebates? Nope. Here is Mike Englund
over at Action Economics: "It turns out that a hefty 4.8 percent real
growth rate was seen for real final sales in Q2, with the bulk of the
strength in the net export component that defies the explanations that
the gain was 'all due to rebates.' The rebates likely did boost nominal
consumption growth with a gain split between price gains and real
growth. Yet, Q2 was clearly poised for a solid performance anyway, led
by trade, nonresidential construction, and a bounce in government
spending there were all likely insensitive to the rebate program."

GDP Revision Signals Strength

The U.S. economy was much stronger in the spring than first thought, with GDP rising 3.3%, but the pace is expected to slow over the rest of the
year.

Europe's Growth Slowed in August

Euro-zone growth slowed in August, adding to evidence of a possible recession. The EuroCOIN indicator fell to its lowest since mid-2003.

Mortgage Rates Fell in Week

Rates on fixed-rate home mortgages fell this week, following reports of weakness in the economy. But rates on adjustable-rate mortgages rose
slightly.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Probably Slowed in July as Rebate Impact Faded

Consumer spending in the U.S. probably slowed in July as the impact of the tax rebates faded, economists said ahead of a report today.

Lockhart Says Federal Reserve's Rate Is `Consistent' With Slower Inflation

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank's interest-rate stance is ``consistent'' with slowing inflation, while signaling
readiness to raise borrowing costs if needed.

Japan factory output rises but outlook weak

Japan July housing starts +19.0 pct yr/yr--govt

TOKYO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Housing starts in Japan, hit hard
by a regulatory change last year, rose 19.0 percent in July from
a year earlier, above a median market forecast for a 14.0 percent
rise, government data showed on Friday.

U.S. economy shows vigor in Q2, but seen flagging

U.S. M-2 money supply down $10.5 bln Aug 18 week

Canada's Harper does not rule out recession

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Economic News - August 27, 2008

Durable Goods Orders - July 2008

Nondefense Capital Goods Change: Up 6.3%

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - August 27, 2008

Purchase Index: 315.9
Change: Up 0.6%

Oil report mostly more of the same

US petroleum inventories were a mixed bag this week with total commercial petroleum inventories up 2.3 billion barrels...
On the demand side, there were minor fluctuations, but total products supplied was down again from last year by 3.6%.

More good news for housing market

The housing market got a bit more good news this week with a small
increase in mortgage applications and a small drop in the average
30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) rate and points paid.

Drop in exports hurt Australia in June

Falling exports took their toll on the Australian economy in June, with
the leading index down 0.5% and the coincident index unchanged. With
commodity prices dropping in July, Australian exports could well take
another hit before recovering as lower prices and better economic
growth abroad help exports regain steam.

Image via Wikipedia

Worker Confidence Sinks to '01 Level

American workers' confidence in the job market is as low as it was during the 2001 recession, according to a new survey.

Inflation Data Damp ECB Rate-Cut Hopes

Slowing German inflation suggested price growth in the euro zone likely peaked
during July, but ECB officials tried to damp market expectations that
interest rates might be reduced soon.

Durable-Goods Orders Climb

Demand for expensive goods rose 1.3% in July, an unexpected gain, thanks to a
dollar-fueled export boom that analysts warn may soon fade as overseas
growth slows. A barometer of business-equipment spending climbed by
2.6%.

Philippines' Economic Growth Weakens to 4.6%; Slowest Pace in Three Years

The Philippine economy expanded at the slowest pace since 2005 as consumer spending waned, posing a
challenge to the central bank as it increases interest rates to fight the fastest inflation in 16 years.

Asean, India Finish Free Trade Agreement on Goods to Spur Trade by a Third

Southeast Asian nations completed negotiations with India for a free trade agreement on goods that
aims to increase commerce between the countries by a third over the next two years.

Australia's Mining Boom Drives Faster-Than-Forecast Business Investment

Australian business investment rose more than twice as much as economists forecast in the second quarter as mining companies spent extra on machinery and
equipment to meet demand from China.

Japan investors dumped foreign bonds last week

U.S. Treasury balances at Fed lower on Aug. 26

Canada economy seen skidding in 2nd-quarter

U.S. holiday sales seen slowest since 2001 -- ICSC

Economic News - August 26, 2008

Consumer Confidence Index - August 2008

Consumer Confidence Index: 56.9
Monthly Change: Up 5

Federal Open Market Committee Minutes - August 5, 2008

Unit labor costs apparently continued to increase at a restrained pace
during the second quarter, reflecting only moderate gains in worker
compensation and relatively strong productivity performance, with
little sign of higher overall inflation passing through to higher
worker compensation.

Case-Shiller Index - June 2008

Composite 20 Index: 167.69
Monthly Change: Down 0.85

New Home Sales - July 2008

Annual Sales Rate (Seasonally Adjusted): 515,000
Monthly Change: Up 2.4%
Annual Change: Down 35.3%

Home sales improving, snags in prices and inventories

Though the news has focused on some negatives in the housing statistics
out early this week, the overall picture is looking better than it has
for several months.

Image via Wikipedia

Fed Minutes Show Split on Inflation Risk

Fed officials downgraded their economic forecast at their last
policy-setting meeting, according to meeting minutes. Some officials
appeared divided over the degree of the inflation threat and the extent
to which financial turmoil is weighing on the economy

Europe's Gloom Is Boon to Dollar

The dollar surged against the euro in early trading, spurred by downbeat
data out of Germany, while the British pound also stumbled. As the
economic picture in Europe darkens, the U.S. dollar is proving to be
the main beneficiary.

U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence Increases as Slump in Home Prices Slows

Confidence among American consumers improved in August for a second month as the surge in gasoline
prices and the slide in home values abated.

Fed Officials Agreed Aug. 5 Next Rate Move Will Be Increase, Minutes Show

Federal Reserve officials agreed at their meeting this month that their next move in interest rates will be to raise them, while reaching no conclusion on
the timing of such a decision, records of the gathering show.

US confidence bounces; glimmer of hope in housing

Rate of monthly house price fall slows