Economic News - October 1, 2008

Case Shiller Index - July 2008

• Composite 20 Index: 166.23


• Monthly Change:Down 0.9%

Consumer Confidence Index (US) - September 2008

• Consumer Confidence Index: 59.8


• Monthly Change: Up 1.3

U.S. Weighs Increase In Deposit Insurance

The Bush administration and congressional leaders are
considering raising the level of consumers' bank deposits guaranteed by
the government as part of a broad effort to revive the failed $700
billion banking-rescue package.

Dollar Takes Bite Out of Euro

The dollar rose against the euro and yen, aided by the recovery in U.S. stocks and hopes for a new bailout.

Tankan shows Japan businesses turn pessimistic

Japan firms pessimistic for 1st time in 5 years

US consumer confidence unchanged in latest week-ABC

Japan Businesses Turn Pessimistic For First Time in Five Years on Exports Japan's largest manufacturers turned
pessimistic about their prospects for the first time in five
years as the deepening U.S. financial crisis stifled demand in
the country's export markets.

Manufacturing in U.S. Probably Shrank as Spending Slumped, Credit Dried Up Manufacturing in the U.S. probably
contracted at a faster pace in September as sales slowed and the
credit crisis deepened, economists said before a report today.

Japan, Australia Money Market Rates Ease on Bailout Hopes, Cash Injections Japanese and Australian money markets
rates fell as U.S. lawmakers worked to salvage a financial-
rescue plan and central banks pumped $15 billion into the system.

FDIC's Bair Thrust Into Bigger Rescue Role as Bernanke Tries to Step Back Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Chairman Sheila Bair is being thrust into a bigger role in
resolving the credit crisis as her better-known counterpart at
the Federal Reserve runs into limits on what he can -- and
wants -- to do.

Economic News - September 30, 2008

Overnight markets around the world were fairly volatile in the wake of Monday's D.C. drama. (As of 4:40 AM Eastern) Oil fell another $2 after falling $10.52 Monday and commodities were down generally. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were at 10,706.00, 232.00 points above the DJIA Monday close in New York. The dollar was mixed, but up over half a percent compared to the yen, up against the Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand dollars, up nearly a half percent against th euro and up slightly against the pound sterling. The Japanese stock market was down over 4% and the German DAX index was down nearly 1%, but the London FTSE 100 opened up 0.55%.

Personal Income and Outlays - August 2008

• Personal Income: Up $61.5 billion


• Real Disposable Personal Income: Down 0.8%

Vote Deals Economy Another Blow

Lawmakers' failure to pass the Treasury's bailout plan
Monday could further weaken an economy already hurt by a crisis of
credit and confidence.

Fed, Treasury Left With Familiar Arsenal

With the House's rejection of the bailout plan, the Fed and
Treasury are stuck for now with tools that have been ineffective at
stemming the financial crisis -- or that could provoke battles with
Congress.

Central Banks Step Up Action

Central banks added $330 billion dollars to the funds they
can pump in into money markets as more financial institutions ran into
trouble in Europe and the U.S.

Fed May Need to Dip Further Into Toolbox as Congress Tries to Revive Bill The Federal Reserve may need to
consider dipping further into its toolbox as Congress tries to
revive legislation aimed at rescuing banks.

U.S. Heading for Deeper Economic Slump, With or Without Paulson's Bailout The U.S. may face its longest
recession in a quarter century no matter what action Congress
takes on Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's $700 billion plan
to rescue the battered banking industry.

German Unemployment Drops as Companies Hire to Work Off Backlog of Orders German unemployment fell more than
economists forecast in September as machine makers hired people to
work off an order backlog.

Germany, U.K. May Swallow Criticism, Adopt Paulson-Style Bailout Package European politicians are
discovering what cometh after pride.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Probably Fell as Credit Shrank, Stocks Plummeted U.S. consumers grew more pessimistic
in September for the first time in three months as the credit
crisis intensified, stocks plunged, firings accelerated and
housing fell deeper into a recession, economists said before
reports today.

Japan Aug housing starts +53.6 pct yr/yr--govt

TOKYO, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Housing starts in Japan, hit by a
regulatory change last year, rose 53.6 percent in August from a
year earlier, above a median market forecast of a 49.5 percent
increase, government data showed on Tuesday.

>

Economic News - September 28, 2008

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - 2nd Quarter 2008 Final

• Real Annual Growth Rate: 2.8%


• Previous Quarter Rate: 0.9%


• GDP Implicit Price Deflator: 1.3%

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead September 29 to October 3, 2008

Markets this week are going to be driven again by political news more
than economic statistics. Asian markets have opened as I write this and
the dollar is up, oil and commodities have dropped and US stock market
futures are up (though by less than Friday's rise) on the announcement
that, yet again, a deal has been struck on infusing government cash
into the US financial system. Though we can expect markets to rise
early in the week if the «deal» turns to actual legislation there's
still plenty of room for volatility. Major factors will be how quickly
the legislation reaches the President, what exactly it contains when
the public finally sees the full text and, towards the end of the week,
the markets reaction when traders start to realize that there will be
consequences to the largest federal intrusion on financial markets
since Alexander Hamilton.

Rescue May Not Revive Economy

The bailout plan offers a much-needed salve to ailing
credit markets, but it is unlikely to prevent the economy from sliding
into recession.

Bailout Gives Fed, Bernanke Key Roles

The government's planned bailout for the financial sector
is likely to give Bernanke an important oversight role and accelerate
plans to change the way the Fed manages interest-rate policy.

Fed May Get Authority to Pay Interest on Reserves as Part of Bank Rescue Congress's $700 billion legislative
compromise to revive credit markets would also expand the
Federal Reserve's power to manage short-term interest rates.

U.S. Payrolls Probably Declined in September as Credit Crisis Intensified The U.S. probably lost jobs in
September for the ninth consecutive month and manufacturing
shrank as the credit crisis intensified, economists said before
reports this week.

Brown, Aso Strive to Save Themselves, and Bush May See Economic Benefits Embattled political leaders in
Tokyo and London may end up coming to the aid of President
George W. Bush in containing the economic fallout from the
credit crisis as political self-preservation trumps nationalism.

Japan's Retail Sales Grew at a Slower Pace in August as Consumers Cut Back Growth in Japan's retail sales
slowed in August as higher prices of daily necessities
discouraged consumers from spending.

Paulson Says Confident Treasury Bank Rescue Plan Can `Unclog' U.S. Markets Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
said the $700 billion asset-purchase plan that Congress is
considering will help ``unclog'' financial markets and underpin
the broader economy.

Japan August retail sales +0.7 pct year/year

TOKYO, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Japanese retail sales rose 0.7
percent in August from a year earlier, government data showed on
Monday, compared with economists' median forecast for a 0.2
percent rise.

World trade little hit so far by financial crisis 

GENEVA, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Trade flows are likely to slow
this year as consumers worried about the financial crisis cut
back spending and a cyclical downturn bites into exports and
imports, economists said.

Economic News - September 26, 2008

Money Supply (M1 and M2) - September 25, 2008

• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $20.8 billion


• M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $401.6 billion

Jobless Claims - September 24, 2008

• Initial Claims: 493,000


• Change from Last Week: Up 32,000

Durable Goods Orders - August 2008

• New Orders: $208.5 billio


• New Orders Change: Down 4.5%


• Nondefense Capital Goods Change: down 7.5%

New Home Sales - August 2008

• Annual Sales Rate (Seasonally Adjusted): 460,000


• Monthly Change: Down 11.5%


• Annual Change: Down 34.5%

No good news in housing this week

Today’s housing market news reinforced the down news for housing and mortgage markets released yesterday.
The Freddie Mac Primary Market Mortgage Survey for this week showed
rates rising substantially, mirroring the results of the Mortgage
Banker’s Association survey.

Industrial production drove Mexican economy down in June

Mexico’s economic activity dropped 0.5% in July, due to a drop in
industrial production, according to the index of Coincident Indicators
released Thursday by the Conference Board...

Few Good Economic Scenarios in View

The Wall Street turmoil is shaking an already-weakened U.S.
economy and could hit households and businesses in the form of fewer
loans and higher interest rates in the months ahead -- in turn sending
unemployment higher and corporate profits lower.

Triple Dose of Bad News on Economy

Demand for durable goods and new homes plunged in August, while weekly jobless
claims surged, the government said in a triple dose of bad economic
data.

Nobel Laureates, Economists Urge Congress Not to Rush on U.S. Rescue Plan More than 150 prominent U.S.
economists, including three Nobel Prize winners, urged Congress
to hold off on passing a $700 billion financial market rescue
plan until it can be studied more closely.

House Republicans Undercut Bush on Financial-Rescue Plan, Stalling Talks Negotiations for a $700 billion
rescue of the U.S. financial system stalled as House Republicans
undercut the Bush administration and left it to congressional
leaders to hammer out a compromise that would calm markets.

Japan's Consumer-Price Inflation Exceeds 2% for Second Month on Oil Costs Japan's consumer-price inflation
exceeded 2 percent for a second month as companies passed on
costs of food and other daily necessities.

Drop in U.S. Stocks Probably Checked Gain in September Consumer Sentiment The turmoil that roiled U.S.
financial markets in the past few weeks probably restrained
consumer sentiment in September even as gasoline prices dropped,
economists said before a report today.

Australia May Cut Benchmark Rate by Most Since 2001, Traders' Bets Show Traders almost doubled bets that
the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut the benchmark interest
rate by 50 basis points for the first time in seven years, to
encourage banks to boost lending amid a global credit freeze.

SNB statement on one-week dollar funding plans

ZURICH, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank joined
other major central banks in offering one-week dollar funds to
ease quarter-end strains in money market.

Foreign central banks boost US agency holdings-Fed

Economic News - September 25, 2008

Existing Home Sales - August 2008

• Total Existing Home Sales Annual Rate: 4.91 million


• Year-to-year Change: Down 10.7%

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - September 24, 2008

• Market Composite Index: 591.4


• Change: Down 10.6%


• Purchase Index: 342.2


• Change: Down 10%

Gasoline inventories at 40-year low

The worst inventory problem is in gasoline, which has been dropping
quickly for several weeks and is well below the average range for the
season. Distillate fuel inventories have been dropping as quickly, but
are within the average range

Home sales, mortgage applications drop

Home buyers and refinancing homeowners pulled back last week as
mortgage rates ticked up nearly a quarter percent for 30-year Fixed
Rate Mortgages (FRMs) and three-tenths percent for 15-year FRMs. With
global credit markets seizing up last week, the rate increase isn’t
unexpected. The National Association of Realtors reported today that
those credit market problems caused trouble for existing home sales in
August.

Australian indicators rebounding

Australia’s Leading Index was unchanged in July after dropping half a percent in June. The Coincident Index which was unchanged in June rose 0.2% in July.

Home Resales Fell 2.2% in August

Existing-home sales resumed falling in August and prices took a record drop of 9.5%
from a year earlier, but inventories decreased sharply.

Stocks mixed, dlr falls on bailout anxiety

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - World stocks steadied, the
dollar fell across the board and the cost of borrowing dollars
in the money market remained high on Thursday as anxiety over a
$700 billion bailout for the U.S. financial system persisted.

Japan logs trade deficit, BOJ cautious over outlook

Money-Market Rates Climb in Asia; U.S. Bailout Doubt Tightens Cash Squeeze

Dollar Falls as Traders Bet on Fed Rate Cut, Bush Warns of Recession Risk

Economic News - September 24, 2008

State Street Investor Confidence Index - September 2008

• Global Index: 70.7


• Monthly Change: Down 2.4


• Year-to-year Change: Down 18.7


• North America Index: 76.1


• Monthly Change: Up 0.9

German economic indicators in freefall

German economic indicators were in full retreat in July with the
Leading Index down 1.4% and the Coincident Index down 0.4%. The only
improved indicators were inventory change series, gross enterprises and
properties income, and employed persons.

French leading index down 0.7%

The French Leading Index dropped substantially in July, while the Coincident Index rose moderately.

Buffett to Invest $5 Billion in Goldman

Goldman Sachs is getting a $5 billion investment from
Warren Buffett, marking one of the biggest expressions of confidence in
the financial system. Goldman's shares rose 6.5% after hours.

Fed Arranges $30 Billion Swap Line With Australia, Norway, Denmark, Sweden The Federal Reserve arranged to
channel $30 billion into the global financial system by opening
currency swap lines with four central banks to relieve
shortages of dollars in markets worldwide.

Paulson, Bernanke Put Shoring Up Banks Ahead of Cutting Best Taxpayer Deal Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled that their
priority is shoring up the nation's banks even if it means they
don't get taxpayers the cheapest prices for the devalued assets
the government buys.

French Business Confidence Declines to Lowest in Five Years in September French business confidence fell to
the lowest in five years in September as the global economic
slowdown dimmed the outlook for sales.

German Business Confidence May Fall to Three-Year Low on Financial Crisis German business confidence probably
declined to the lowest level in more than three years in September
as the worsening financial crisis in the U.S. damped the outlook
for global economic growth, a survey of economists shows.

Japan's Manufacturers are Pessimistic This Quarter as Export Growth Slows Confidence among Japanese
manufacturers held near a four-year low as the global financial
crisis threatens to smother demand in the country's export
markets and higher raw-material costs erode profits.

U.S. Home Resales Probably Declined as Mortgages Became Harder to Obtain Home resales in the U.S. probably
fell in August, signaling the market remained in a slump heading
into the latest financial meltdown, economists said before a
report today.

Japan firms' mood stays gloomy, bodes ill for tankan 

Wall Street's new era

Sep 23 - Experts say new players will flood
Wall Street, but the game's the same, and US investment banks will
continue to lead the pack. 

Economic News - September 22, 2008

Dollar Falls, Oil Rises On Rescue Doubts

Volatility spread across financial markets, undermining the
dollar and contributing to the biggest-ever one-day surge in oil prices.

Treasury Relents On Key Points

The White House and Congress inched closer to agreement on the rescue plan, with the Treasury making most of the concessions.

Bailout Pitch Tests Paulson's Political Skill

Henry Paulson knows how to do a deal on Wall Street behind closed doors. But how about in Washington?

Paulson May Push Debt to Highest Level Since 1954, Deficit to $1 Trillion Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's
$700 billion proposal to stabilize the banking system may push
the national debt to the highest level since 1954, threatening
an erosion of foreign appetite for U.S. bonds.

Singapore Inflation Slows as Fuel Prices Drop, Reducing Currency Pressure Singapore's inflation slowed for a
second month in August as petrol stations lowered pump prices
and food costs eased, reducing pressure on the central bank to
allow faster gains in the currency.

Paulson, Bernanke May Find Painful Parallels in 1990s Nordic Bailout, Bust If Henry Paulson and Ben S.
Bernanke want to know what happens when central banks and
governments bail out financial institutions, they should be
``learning Swedish.''

Paulson Plan Is a `Joke', Says Ohmae, Calling for $5 Trillion Rescue Plan Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's
$700 billion plan to buy devalued assets from financial companies
is ``a joke'' because it doesn't go far enough to calm markets,
said Kenichi Ohmae, president of Business Breakthrough Inc.

South Korea Lowers Property Taxes to Bolster Economy as Buiding Work Drops South Korea will lower taxes on
residential and commercial properties to stoke an economy that
is growing at the weakest pace in more than a year as consumers
cut spending and building work declines.

Oil surges in biggest 1-day jump

Sep 22 - Oil prices surged to the biggest
one-day gain in history. Prices rose more than 16 dollars, on the heels
of the government financial rescue plan. 

Economic News - September 21, 2008

US investors will be wondering Monday morning how Friday's Treasury Department plan to bail out the financial industry from the bad paper floating around. In Asian trading so far Monday, oil prices are
relatively flat (up 0.33%). The dollar is down slightly against most Asian currencies (down 0.93% against the yen, less against others and up against a handful). Tokyo's Nikkei 225 stock index is up 1.4%. Overall, most markets are not up or down much. The pictures is mixed, but can best be described as "calm", a great change after the last three weeks.

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead September 22 to 26, 2008

For the third week running the biggest factors moving markets are
likely to be developments in the ongoing efforts by the Federal Reserve
and US Treasury to restore order to credit markets. A couple of
scheduled events that may shed some light on how foreign investors are
taking those efforts are Treasury security auctions Tuesday for 52-week
T-bills, Wednesday for 2-year Treasury Notes and Thursday for 5-Year
Treasury Notes. The shorter term bills have been benefiting from a
«flight to quality» that resulted in essentially zero yields part of
last week. The slightly longer term bills are slightly riskier and may
reflect more of the 1 to 5-year outlook for the dollar and the US
economy.

Lawmakers Battle Over Rescue Plan

Lawmakers are scrambling to put their mark on the Bush
administration's $700 billion plan to save financial markets -- a
fast-moving test of wills that could reshape one of the biggest
bailouts in U.S. history.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Become Banks, Ending an Era for Wall Street

The Wall Street that shaped the
financial world for two decades ended last night, when Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley concluded there is no future
in remaining investment banks now that investors have determined
the model is broken.

Paulson Widens $700 Billion Rescue Beyond Mortgages, Limits Fund Insurance

The Bush administration widened
the scope of its $700 billion plan to avert a financial
meltdown by including assets other than mortgage-related
securities.

Dollar May Get `Crushed' as Traders Weigh $1 Trillion Cost of Bailout Plan

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's
plan to end the rout in U.S. financial markets may derail the
dollar's three-month rally as investors weigh the costs of the
rescue.

Treasuries Prove Irresistible as Deflation Bet Outweighs Paulson's Bailout

As details of Treasury Secretary
Henry Paulson's plan to revive the U.S. financial system by
pumping as much as $700 billion into the markets emerged Sept.
19, bond investor Michael Cheah was reminded of Japan.

Wall St. fallout hits Main St.

Sep. 19 - The financial crises and subsequent
government bailouts will cost businesses and families across the U.S.,
not just bankers on Wall Street. 

Economic News - September 18, 2009

Current Account US - 2nd Quarter 2008 (Preliminary)

• Current Account Deficit: $183.1 billion


• Quarterly Change: Up $7.5 billion


• Goods Deficit: $216.3 billion


• Quarterly Change: Up $5.3 billion

Housing Starts - August 2008

• Housing Starts: 895,000


• Monthly Change: Down 6.2%


• Year-to-year Change: Down 33.1%


• 1-Family Monthly Change: Down 1.9%

Jobless Claims - September 18, 2008

• Initial Claims: 455,000


• Change from Last Week: Up 10,000

Leading Index (US) - August 2008

• Leading Index: Down 0.5%


• Coincident Index: Down 0.1%


• Lagging Index: Up 0.4%

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - September 18, 2008

• Market Composite Index: 661.7


• Change: Up 33.4%


• Purchase Index: 380.4


• Change: Up 2.4%

Money Supply - September 18, 2008

• M1 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $1391.2 billion


• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $21.8 billion

US petroleum demand down sharply

The weekly petroleum data from the US Energy Information Administration
showed hurricane effects for another week as inventories fell again for
total commercial petroleum, crude oil and all refined products other
than propane/propylene. The gasoline inventory drop was more moderate
than last week, but still fairly big at 3.3 million barrels, putting
gasoline inventories even further below the average range for the
season.

More good housing news on several fronts

Mortgage applications increased last week according to the Mortgage
Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, while the
Mortgage Bankers Association and Freddie Mac both reported interest
rates down across the board. The Housing Market Index released Tuesday
by the National Association of Homebuilders and Housing Starts released
Wednesday by the Commerce Department indicate that builder confidence
is rebounding based on strengthening sales and buyer traffic, but
builders are still starting less new projects, a good sign for the new
homes inventory glut.

Wall Street Crisis Not Quite 1929

Discount Window Borrowing Soars; AIG Taps $28 Billion of Fed Credit

Investment bank borrowing from the U.S. Federal Reserve's newly expanded discount
window soared in the latest week, reflecting severe strains in credit
markets in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Paulson Plans to Cleanse Companies of Troubled Assets, Insure Market Funds

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry
Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke proposed
moving troubled assets from the balance sheets of American
financial companies into a new institution.

Bailout Backlash Against Fed, Treasury Mounting in Congress, Wall Street

Amid calls for the government to
take stronger measures to stabilize financial markets, some
former Federal Reserve officials, lawmakers and Wall Street
executives are saying too much has already been done.

Domino Effect of Takeovers Pushes Bernanke, Paulson to Work With Congress

The Federal Reserve and Treasury's
efforts to solve the financial crisis may have only undercut the
ability of banks and Wall Street firms to raise new equity
capital, leaving them to fail or be taken over.

How Russian authorities are tackling market crisis

Sept 19 (Reuters) - Russian markets are due to reopen on
Friday after a 1-½ day trade halt, following a sell off of
more than 20 percent earlier in the week.

Wall St. 2008 vs 1929

Sep. 18 - Analysts say fears that 2008 could mark the second coming of the Great Depression are vastly overstated.

Economic News - September 16, 2008

Housing Market Index - September 2008

• Current Month Index: 18


• Monthly Change: Up 2


• Current 1-Family Sales Index: 17


• Monthly Change: Up 1

Federal Funds Rate (FOMC) - September 16, 2008

Federal Funds Rate: 2%

Discount Rate: 2.25%

Treasury International Capital - July 2008

• Foreign purchases of Long Term US Securities: -$25.6 billion


• Official purchases: -$4.9 billion


• Private purchases: -$20.7 billion

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - August 2008

• CPI-U: 219.086


• Monthly Change: Down 0.4%


• Year-to-year Change: Up 5.4%

Core CPI question revisited

Today's release of CPI data for August reinforces the point. In a pattern opposite to the one we've seen the
last 14 months (and that I don't hear anyone complaining about), energy
and food prices fell precipitously in August, bringing the unadjusted
full CPI down 0.4%. The prior lesson still applies - the core CPI rose
0.2% in August. September looks to be another big down month for energy
and food prices, likely to bring full CPI down even as core CPI rises
slightly.

Mixed signals from Spain, but leading indicators down

The Spanish economy sent mixed signals in July, with the Coincident
Index showing strong growth of 0.3%, while the Leading Index projected
worse times ahead with a 0.4% drop. With most of Europe sending
consistently bad signals the last several months, the rise in the
Coincident Index looks an awful lot like the calm before the storm. The
only declining coincident indicator was industrial production, while
only one leading indicator, the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, rose.

AIG May Get $85 Billion U.S. Loan in Return for Majority Stake - Federal Government buys out and bails out top insurer with a 2-year loan

Fed Silence on Energy Speaks Volumes

The six-week period between the August and September FOMC meetings was the
most favorable of the Ben Bernanke era when it comes to controlling
inflation, but you wouldn't it from Tuesday's Fed statement.

Fed Keeps Rate at 2%, Rebuffing Call for Cut to Soothe Financial Markets

The Federal Reserve left its main
interest rate at 2 percent, rebuffing calls by some investors
for an immediate cut after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s
bankruptcy shook markets worldwide.

Central Banks in Japan, Australia Inject $22 Billion to Soothe Markets

Central banks in Japan and Australia
injected $22.4 billion into their financial systems amid ongoing
efforts to calm markets roiled by the demise of Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc. and crisis at American International Group Inc.

Bank of Japan May Keep Key Rate at 0.5% After a $24 Billion Cash Injection

The Bank of Japan, fresh from
injecting 2.5 trillion yen ($24 billion) into the banking system,
may keep interest rates unchanged today following the collapse
of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Hong Kong's Yam Says Next Few Days `Crucial' to Resolving Financial Crisis

Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief
Executive Joseph Yam said the next few days will be crucial to
restoring health in the global financial system after the credit
crisis deteriorated.

Consumer Prices in U.S. Fall First Time in Almost Two Years as Fuel Drops

U.S. consumer prices fell in August
for the first time in almost two years as fuel costs declined
from record levels.

US consumer confidence rises in latest week-ABC 

NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - ABC News released on Tuesday
its weekly Consumer Comfort Index (CCI), which measures
consumer confidence in the United States. In the latest
release, the CCI rose to -41 from -47 in the previous
week. 

Wall Street snaps global sell-off

Sep 16 - U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday,
following steep losses in Europe and Asia, as speculation of Federal
assistance to American International Group. 

Canada maintains growth outlook despite turmoil

OTTAWA, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Canadian Finance Minister Jim
Flaherty sees no need to lower his forecast for the country's
economic growth, despite a deepening global financial crisis
and his expectation of a further slide in U.S. growth.

Economic News - September 15, 2008

Empire State Manufacturing Survey - September 2008

• Business Conditions Index: -7.4


• Monthly Change: 10 points


• New Orders Index: slightly above 0

Industrial Production - August 2008

• Industrial Production Index: 110.3


• (Base year 2002, Seasonally Adjusted)


• Monthly Change: Down 1.1%


• Manufacturing Change: Down 1.0%

China Sharpens Focus on Growth

China's central bank cut rates for the first time in more than six years, as concern over the U.S. reorders economic priorities.

ECB, BOE Pump Cash Into Markets

Central banks around the world pumped cash into money markets amid the turmoil
on Wall Street. Expectations are rising that rates will be cut.

Oil's Fall to $100 Brings Relief

Oil futures pushed lower Sunday even after Hurricane Ike forced shutdowns
of Gulf Coast refineries and platforms. Crude fell $2.09, or 2.1%, to
$99.09 a barrel.

Wall Street Convulsions May Further Erode U.S. Growth, Put Pressure on Fed

The Wall Street convulsions that
took down two of the largest investment banks in 24 hours
threaten to make it harder for consumers and companies to borrow,
push unemployment higher and put pressure on the Federal Reserve
to consider an interest-rate cut.

China May Cut Rates Again, Increase Lending, Spend More to Boost Economy

China may cut interest rates again,
ease limits on bank lending and boost spending to spur economic
growth after lowering borrowing costs for the first time in six
years.

Japanese Consumer Sentiment Falls to a Record Low as Inflation Quickens

Japanese consumers became the most
pessimistic they've been in at least 26 years, making it
unlikely they will spend to aid an economy weakened by slower
global demand.

German Investor Sentiment Probably Increased on Retreat in Oil Price, Euro

German investor confidence probably
rose for a second month after a decline in oil prices and a weaker
euro improved the prospects of Europe's largest economy, a survey
of economists shows.

Panama consumer prices up 0.4 pct in August

Canadian home resales cool in August

NY Fed manufacturing shrinks unexpectedly in Sept

US Aug industrial output drop biggest in 3 years

Economic News - September 14, 2008

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead September 15 to 19, 2008

Normally the Tuesday Fed announcement should be the big event of the
week, but two things stand in the way. First, it's almost a foregone
conclusion that the announcement will be no change. Barring a surprise
move or a major shift in the announcement language looking to the next
meeting, that's a nonstarter for market moves. Second, like last
weekends seizure/bailout (depending who you ask) of Fannie and Freddie,
this weekend promises a big announcement on troubled investment banker
Lehman Brothers.

Producer Price Index (PPI) - August 2008

• Finished Goods Index: Down 0.9%


• Finished Goods Core: Up 0.2%


• Finished Goods Annual Change: Up 9.6%

Retail Sales - August 2008

• Total Retail and Food Service Sales: $381.2 billion


• Monthly Change: Down 0.3%


• Annual Change: Up 1.6%

No Deal Reached Yet for Lehman

The outlines of plans to determine Lehman's fate emerged as it became clear
that a clean sale of the entire firm would be too difficult to execute.

Retail Sales Tumbled in August

Retail sales in August were weak across the board, falling 0.3% from July, a sign that consumer spending is weak.

Options for Battling Crisis Narrow

The credit crunch could be entering a critical stage, with the share prices of Lehman and other financial firms reeling.

Paulson, Bernanke Brave `Raptors' in Resisting Taxpayers' Money for Lehman

Henry Paulson and Ben S. Bernanke may have to weather more speculative attacks on financial
institutions as they resist using public funds to aid the sale of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

ECB's Weber Is More Confident on Inflation Outlook, Can't Give `All-Clear'

European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said the outlook for inflation has brightened
and the recent fall in oil prices is ``reassuring.''

China May Ease Lending Restrictions After Export Growth, Production Cooled

China's central bank may cut the amount of cash it requires lenders to set aside as reserves as
inflation slows and economic growth weakens.

EU's Almunia says still risks of second-round effects

ATHENS, Sept 13 (Reuters) - European Union and euro zone
inflation has probably peaked, but risks of second-round effects
should not be underestimated, EU monetary Affairs Commissioner
Joaquin Almunia said in an interview published on Saturday.

Economic News - September 11, 2008

CASH Index - September 2008

• CASH Index Reading: 69.2


• Monthly Change: Up 33.8


• Job Index: 95.5


• Job Index Change: Up 9.7

Federal Budget - August 2008

• Monthly Deficit/Surplus: $111,914 billion deficit


• Prior Year Monthly: $116,973 billion deficit

Import Export Price Index - August 2008

• Import Prices: Down 3.7%


• Non-petroleum Import Prices: Down 0.3%


• Export Prices: Down 1.7%


• Non-agricultural Export Prices: Down 0.7%

International Trade (US) - July 2008

• Exports: $168.1 billion


• Monthly Change: Up $5.4 billion


• Imports: $230.3 billion


• Monthly Change: Up $8.7 billion

Jobless Claims - September 11, 2008

• Initial Claims: 445,000


• Change from Last Week: Down 6,000

Money Supply (M1 and M2) - September 11, 2008

• M1 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $1391.5 billion


• M1 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $21.6 billion


• M2 Seasonally Adjusted Prior Month: $7716.5 billion


• M2 Annual Change (Unadjusted): Up $402 billion

Freddie Mac reports big rate drop

Freddie Mac reported that mortgage rates fell further this week,
bringing the average rate for a 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage down to
5.93% - down 0.6% over the last four weeks and down 0.4% from last
week.

Korean economic indicators bounce back

Korean economic indicators bounced back strongly in July after big drops in June. Both the Leading Index and the Coincident Index rose 0.9% in July.

Japan's Economy Contracts

Japan said its economy shrank at an annualized pace of 3% during the April-June quarter, revising down an earlier estimate.

Exports Keep Driving U.S. Growth

U.S. exports surged in July and will continue to add a much-needed boost to the nation's economic growth.

Economist: Market at Near Bottom

Economist Karl Case says he thinks the housing market may be near a bottom.

China's Industrial Output Expands at Slowest Pace in Six Years on Exports

China's industrial production grew
at the slowest pace in six years on weaker export demand and
factory shutdowns for the Olympics, increasing the likelihood
the government will stimulate the economy.

Japan's Economy Shrinks 3%, Most Since 2001, as Spending, Exports Decline

Japan's economy shrank 3 percent
last quarter, the steepest contraction since 2001, as companies
and households cut spending and exports fell.

Mexican gross fixed investment jumps 8 pct in June

Canada new home market cools further in July

Economic News - September 10, 2008

Oil markets shrug off big inventory drops

Oil markets shrugged off a small OPEC production cut and a massive drop
in US oil inventories Wednesday as the spot price for WTI crude fell by
another 68 cents. This is a bubble that even with government
intervention (by OPEC governments) is rapidly deflating. Still, with
total US commercial petroleum inventories down more than 15 million
barrels in a single week and drops in all categories of refined
products except propane/propylene, traders should expect a pause and
maybe even some increase in prices the next few days.

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey - September 10, 2008

>

• Market Composite Index: 496.2


• Change: Up 9.5%


• Purchase Index: 371.5


• Change: Up 6.4%

Mortgage rates down

Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) and Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) rates fell
last week while mortgage applications rose after adjusting for the
holiday shortened week, according to the Weekly Mortgage Applications
Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refinance applications
rose more than 15% on an adjusted basis, while purchase applications
rose more than 6%.

More bad news for British economy

The bad news continued for the European economy with the release of the
Leading Index for the UK Wednesday. The British leading indicators fell
0.7% in July, while the coincident index rose 0.1% according to the
Conference Board.

Kudlow: Look Through the Windshield

The commodity drop signals the death of inflation expectations. And of
course, the oil plunge itself is a big tax cut for consumers. Not only
will real wages start rising again, but folks will be able to service
their mortgages. That’s good for banks...
I know that there’s no confidence in the stock market. But I do want to
keep hammering away that falling commodities is a very good thing for
consumers. You can make money on that in the stock market.

Capital Commerce: Some Good Economic News

Here are a couple of rays of sunshine, via Reuters. First, the suits seem to be getting a bit more chipper...
And the folks at Disney aren't seeing a global recessio...

Image via Wikipedia

Exports Prop Up Local Economies

Exports have become a key to greater local prosperity in the U.S. more than at any time in decades, fueled by the dollar's fall.

EU Sharply Cuts Economic Forecast

Lower forecasts for growth in Europe underscored concerns that the region could slip into recession this year.

Supply of Homes for Sale Declines

The number of homes listed for sale declined in many metropolitan markets last month.

Fed May Increase Lending to Banks, Brokers as `Mother of Year-Ends' Nears

The Federal Reserve may have to
increase the cash it provides to banks and brokers, already a
record, to help them balance their books at the end of the year.

Japan Machine Orders Fall for Second Month as Makers See Demand Weakening

Japanese machinery orders fell for a
second month in July, signaling manufacturers expect the global
slowdown to crimp demand into next year.

New Zealand Cuts Key Rate More Than Estimates to 7.5%; Currency Tumbles

New Zealand's central bank cut its
benchmark interest rate by a half point to 7.5 percent, more
than forecast by most economists, saying the economy is in a
recession and inflation will slow.

Australian Employment Rises Three Times Forecast Pace, Jobless Rate Falls

Australian employers hired almost
three times as many workers in August as economists forecast,
adding to evidence a mining boom is helping offset weaker
domestic demand.

French Payrolls Fall More Than Twice Initial Forecast in Second Quarter

France lost more than twice as many
jobs as initially reported in the second quarter as economic
growth contracted for the first time in more than five years.

Japan machine orders hit by export slump, recession

China's troubled stock market

Sep 11 - China stock investors are running for cover on signs of an economic slowdown after the Olympics.

Economic News - September 9, 2008

Pending Home Sales Index - July 2008

• Pending Home Sales Index: 86.5


• Monthly Change: Down 3.2%


• Yearly Change: Down 6.8%

Wholesale Trade - July 2008

• Wholesale Sales: $410.6 billion


• Monthly Change: Down 0.3%


• Year-to-year Change: Up 16.5%

Pending home sales fell in July

The National Association of Realtor’s Pending Home Sales Index fell 3.2% in July.
The June index was revised upward slightly for a total increase of 5.8%
from May to June (and a net increase from May to July). On a
year-over-year basis, the index was down 6.8% nationally, 2.4% in the
Midwest, 13.4% in the South, 13.2% in the Northeast and the index was
up 6.5% from July 2007 in the West.

Japanese economy further in the hole

Japanese economic indicators dropped again in July following large losses in June. The Leading Index for Japan dropped 0.5%, while the Coincident Index which fell 0.2% in July. The yen fell on the news.

Housing Market Remains Weak

Pending home sales dropped 3.2% in July, reversing gains in June. Job openings and hiring continued to decline.

EU Pledges Closer Ties to Kiev

The EU said it would build closer economic and political ties with Ukraine
but stopped short of inviting the country to join the 27-nation bloc.

OPEC Will Curtail Oil Output

OPEC ministers decided to scale back output in the face of falling prices and slowing demand growth.

China Inflation Cools to Slowest Pace in a Year as Food Price Gains Ease China's inflation cooled to the
slowest pace since June 2007 on smaller gains in food prices,
giving the central bank more room to stimulate growth in the
world's fourth-largest economy.

Japan's Wholesale Inflation Eases for First Time in 11 Months as Oil Drops

Japan's wholesale inflation rate
slowed for the first time in 11 months as oil and commodity costs
fell, signaling price pressures are starting to ease in the
world's second-largest economy.

U.K. Economy Contracts for First Time Since at Least 1996, Institute Says

The U.K. economy is contracting for
the first time in at least a decade, the National Institute for
Economic and Social Research said.

U.S. Sales of Previously Owned Homes Decline 3.2%, Adding to Property Glut

Fewer Americans signed contracts to
purchase previously owned homes in July as harder-to-get
financing kept would-be buyers from taking advantage of lower
prices.

China's August Export Growth Slows to 21.1% on Weakening Global Demand

China's export growth slowed,
adding pressure for more government measures to protect jobs and
stimulate the world's fourth-biggest economy.

US economists boost 2008 GDP forecast-Blue Chip

WASHINGTON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - A sharp upward revision in

U.S. gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2008
prompted economists to ratchet up their forecasts for growth
for the whole year, a survey released on Wednesday showed.

CFOs more optimistic about U.S. economy -- survey

NEW YORK, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Chief financial officers are
more optimistic about the direction of the U.S. economy, but
remain concerned about consumer demand and weak credit markets,
according to a quarterly survey.

Economic News - September 8, 2008

The big economic news for Monday September 8, 2008 was not in any of the economic indicators. It wasn't even in the markets, though they did react well to the real news.
The big news was the seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the federal government. The dollar responded well to the news which helped markets from stocks to commodities in the US and worldwide.
The action leaves the Federal Reserve less likely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting and may affect OPEC's decision on whether to cut production as oil prices fall near $100 a barrel.

Employment Trends Index - August 2008

>

• Employment Trends Index: 110.8


• Monthly Change: Down 0.5%

Consumer Credit - July 2008

• Total outstanding consumer credit: $2572.3 billion


• Total rate of change: 2%

Government Seizes Mortgage Giants

The government seized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in its most
dramatic market intervention in decades. Treasury plans to replace the
companies' CEOs and provide up to $200 billion as part of the rescue.

Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady

The Federal Reserve is not likely to change its current course for
interest-rate policy amid the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Consumer Credit Inches Higher

Americans increased their borrowing at the lowest rate in seven months during
July, a sign of growing financial stress in the U.S.

McCain May Privatize Fannie, Freddie; Obama Sees Federal Role in Housing

John McCain and Barack Obama agree
the Treasury needed to step in to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac. They disagree over how much the U.S. government should be
involved in the housing market once the immediate crisis is past.

Fannie, Freddie `House of Cards' Accounting Prompted Government Takeover

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac used
accounting rules that created a ``house of cards'' as the
housing market descended into its worst slump since the Great
Depression.

Pending U.S. Home Resales Probably Fell in July as Mortgage Rates Climbed

Fewer Americans signed contracts in
July to purchase previously owned homes, a sign that falling
home prices aren't enough to bring buyers back into the market,
economists said before a private report today.

Hiring Plans at U.S. Employers Fall to Five-Year Low as Retailers Retrench

Fewer U.S. employers plan to hire in
the fourth quarter, according to a private survey that shows the
worst holiday-season job prospects on record at retailers.

Mantega sees Brazil real weakening against dollar

BRASILIA, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Finance Minister Guido Mantega
said on Monday the Brazilian real would likely continue to
weaken against the dollar due to the country's shrinking trade
surplus, a growing current-account deficit and tightening of
credit on the international market.

Mexico cuts 2008 growth estimate, sees better 2009

MEXICO CITY, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Mexico cut its forecast for
economic growth this year to 2.4 percent from 2.8 percent,
citing the slowdown in the United States, its main trading
partner, the finance ministry said on Monday.

Economic News - September 7, 2008

Employment Situation - August 2008

• Nonfarm Payroll Employment: 137,473 million


• Monthly Change: Down 84,000


• Unemployment Rate: 6.1%

Federal government to take over mortgage markets

The rumors are that sometime Sunday the Treasury Department will
announce that the two big mortgage market makers, Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac, are being forced into conservatorship under the Federal
Housing Finance Agency. If true, this will mean the federal government
will directly control well over half the secondary mortgage market in
the United States when considering the Ginnie Mae (FHA) market already
in federal hands. For taxpayers, which means most homeowners, this is a
huge potential liability if mishandled.

Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead September 7 to 13, 2008

This week will be a long one for investors, a full seven day week. The
most important event of the week is expected sometime Sunday when the
Treasury will formally announce a conservatorship for mortgage giants
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, placing the assets of half of the US
mortgage market directly under federal control. The week won't end
until Saturday's running of the St. Leger Stakes at Doncaster
Racecourse in Britain officially ends the summer down season for
stocks, at least for ceremonial and superstitious purpose

Treasury to Outline Fan-Fred Plan

The Treasury is expected to announce early Sunday afternoon details of a
plan under which regulators will effectively take temporary control
over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

GSE Takeover May Help Homebuyers

Homebuyers and holders of Fannie and Freddie debt are the likely beneficiaries of
a Treasury plan to takeover the beleaguered mortgage giants, but it is
less clear how shareholders will fare.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac's Capital Concerns Prompt Paulson to Take Control

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
decided to take control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after a
review found the beleaguered mortgage-finance companies used
accounting methods that inflated their capital, according to
people with knowledge of the decision.

U.S. Retail Sales, Excluding Autos, Probably Had First Drop in Six Months

A measure of U.S. retail sales probably fell for the first time in six months in August as
Americans paid less for gasoline and pared purchases at shopping
centers, economists said ahead of a government report this week.

Almunia Says Europe Faces a `Serious Slowdown,' Growth to Recover in 2009

European Union Economic and Monetary
Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said economic growth in the
region will recover in 2009 after a slowdown in the second and third quarters.

Lagarde Says France May Have to Cut 2008 Growth Forecast After Contraction

France may have to cut its growth
forecasts after the economy shrank in the second quarter and
because of ``current economic circumstances,'' Finance Minister
Christine Lagarde said.

Ecuador central bank ups '07 GDP data and '08 view

QUITO, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Ecuador's central bank chief on
Friday said his institution has revised upwards its economic
growth data for 2007 and was raising its forecast for economic
expansion this year to above 4 percent. 

U.S. jobs disappear

Sep. 5 - The labor market struggled in August
with the unemployment rate near a five-year high and jobs lost for the
eighth month in a row. 

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